Migration Turns into a Tool of Manipulation
In the modern world, the concept of "Migration as a Weapon" has emerged as a significant geopolitical concern. This strategy, first recognized by U.S. political scientist Kelly M. Greenhill, involves the deliberate manipulation of migration flows by states to achieve various objectives.
There are four primary forms of controlled migration as a weapon:
- Forced Mass Migration or Population Transfers: This tactic aims to destabilize target regions by deliberately causing or encouraging large groups of people to move across borders.
- Instrumentalization of Asylum Seekers or Migrants: States may use migrants or refugees to create political pressure or humanitarian crises, such as when Belarus deployed migrants at the Poland border to provoke EU tensions.
- Military or Hybrid Warfare Migration Tactics: Migration flows can be part of a broader hybrid warfare strategy, as seen in Russia funneling migrants from conflict zones via Libya to shake European stability.
- Ethnic Cleansing and Displacement as a War Tactic: This form involves forced displacement or destruction of settlements to achieve military or ideological aims, such as in the Sudan conflict.
States have several responses to these tactics:
- Enacting emergency laws to control or reject asylum applications at borders, as Finland is doing to address Russian migrant surges.
- Strengthening border controls and establishing restricted zones or states of emergency to manage or prevent irregular migration, exemplified by Poland’s response to the Belarus migrant crisis.
- Enhancing international cooperation and pressure on transit countries to disrupt human trafficking networks facilitating these flows.
- Balancing humanitarian responses with security imperatives, ensuring asylum seekers' fundamental rights while preventing exploitation.
- Developing hybrid threat awareness and defense mechanisms, treating migration weaponization as part of wider geopolitical conflicts requiring coordinated defense.
However, these responses come with their own challenges. Target states can react to impending migration flows by renouncing humanitarian commitments, closing borders, and/or shifting the problem outward, but this can come at high political and moral costs. Liberal democracies, with their attractiveness, ability to meet demands, and historical susceptibility to differences between professed values and actual behavior, are often more vulnerable to the use of migration as a weapon.
Adaptation, or taking in the displaced, can remove the strategic influence of the perpetrator, but it is easier to achieve if the group in question is not perceived as threatening. Many countries reduce their vulnerability by redefining who is eligible for protection or signing agreements with countries that lie between them and the origin countries of migration.
It's essential to note that the term "migration as a weapon" does not imply a "superweapon." Rather, it refers to strategically induced migration used by states to achieve various goals, such as blackmailing other countries or putting pressure on them. Such measures may be sensible in the short term, but they can be costly and counterproductive in the long term, making states more vulnerable to future attacks.
The political instrumentalization of migration in Poland, for instance, is used to gain internal political advantages, not as a weapon. Militarily oriented migrations, which involve expulsions during an active conflict to gain a military advantage on the battlefield, are another form.
In conclusion, the strategic use of migration as a weapon poses a significant challenge to global security and humanitarian efforts. Understanding this phenomenon and developing appropriate responses is crucial for maintaining stability and upholding human rights in an increasingly interconnected world.
- In the realm of international politics, the exploitation of migration as a means to exert pressure or influence can be traced in the strategic maneuvers of certain states.
- The ongoing political situation in Poland showcases the utilization of migration as a tool for internal political advantage, contradicting its role as a geopolitical weapon.
