Middle Eastern Excursion Reveals Policy Evolution for Trump
Host SCOTT SIMON cracks open the discussions with Firas Maksad, the managing director for the Middle East in North Africa at Eurasia Group - a renowned political risk consultancy firm. Firas graciously accepts the invite, and we dive right in.
SIMON: Trump's tour has been chock full of mind-boggling deals, ain't it Firas? Let's talk major players - Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. How'd they pull off such a massive trick?
MAKSAD: (Laughs) Welcome to the trillion-dollar tour, Scott! It's no secret these nations are masters at grabbing Trump's attention. They know his love for flashy headlines and that he wields the most powerful office on the planet. With stakes as high as Iran, they'll do what it takes for an American security umbrella. No big surprise, the fun and games were abundant.
SIMON: Great showmanship, sure. But can we expect them to actually dish out the trillions they've pledged?
MAKSAD: Tempting as those zeros might seem, I reckon investments lacking financial return won't last a lifetime. They're well aware Trump's presiding over a government that thrives on big headlines. I suspect they dangle those outrageous numbers to entice the president. One reason Israel's missing from the travel itinerary is it can't deliver the much-needed truce in Gaza. Netanyahu's ceasefire dreams are simply out of reach, given his frequent stumbles.
SIMON: Now Trump hinted at progress in nailing a nuclear deal with Iran. If it's true, what's the latest information?
MAKSAD: With diplomacy finally taking its course, the stage is set for a possible deal. It seems there's a divide between the U.S. and Israel on this one, with Netanyahu wishing for an attack to sabotage Iran's nuclear program. The Gulf states, however, cry peace, fearing war and wanting stability for their national ambitions. Luckily for Trump, he shares these pro-peace sentiments with his Arab allies, so tensions with Israel are taking a backseat for now.
SIMON: If what you say is accurate, diplomacy might have a fighting chance in the Middle East. With snapback sanctions on Iran up for renewal by June or July, what are the chances?
MAKSAD: Time's ticking. The Iranians acknowledge their weakened position after taking hints from their defeats in Lebanon and Syria, two key allies. Both the U.S. and Iran understand they need to act fast to seal an interim mini deal before the sanctions drop. Given current regional dynamics, an accord seems possible, but nobody's counting on a lasting ceasefire anytime soon.
SIMON: Syria's new interim president, Mahmoud Sharaa, once had a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head. Just imagine - from terrorist to shaking hands with Trump! Could the U.S. really lift sanctions on Syria?
MAKSAD: That's quite the turnabout, huh? Gulf states see Syria as the weak link in their neighborhood, given its potential impact on regional stability and safety. For some, it's Israel to the south, while for others it's a fragile Lebanon, Jordan, or Turkey to the north. The Syrian conflict poses a real threat to everyone involved. Washington seems to have given the situation the green light, as long as Trump's concerned parties play their cards right.
SIMON: It seems these countries are repositioning themselves in the U.S.-China rivalry. Is U.S.-Gulf relations forgone and forget with past political controversy, such as Clinton Foundation allegations?
MAKSAD: Politics in America often makes for strange bedfellows, Scott! Gulf nations come bearing baubles regardless of whether they voted for Trump or Hillary. As long as the United States is the world leader, they'll do what it takes to stay affordable and competitive against China. The Gulf states could be an essential third player in the race for emerging technology and strategic industries that will shape the future.
- Scott Simon asks Firas Maksad about the pledged trillions from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, noting that they might not last a lifetime due to their need for financial return and Trump's penchant for big headlines.
- Firas Maksad discusses the possibility of a nuclear deal with Iran, mentioning that the Gulf states advocate for peace due to their desire for stability and fear of war, unlike Israel which aims for a ceasefire in Gaza but is unable to deliver.
- Firas Maksad explains that Syria could have its sanctions lifted due to its potential impact on regional stability, with the U.S. willing to do so as long as Syria plays its part and doesn't pose a threat to Washington's concerns or allies.
