Middle East nuclear standoff: Scholar Arbatov acknowledges potential for war involving Iran, uranium enrichment, and Israeli nuclear weapons.
Tensions Between Iran and Israel on the Rise
Image: GLOBAL LOOK PRESS
In the face of Donald Trump's claim at the G7 summit that Tehran was open to diplomacy, the simmering rivalry between Israel and Iran shows no signs of easing. Their bitter exchange of blows continues.
Alexei Arbatov, director of the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences, had an intimate chat with Komsomolskaya Pravda about the nuclear capabilities of these two nations and the potential consequences of their feud.
- Alexei, is Iran in possession of nuclear weapons?
No, but they've got enough highly enriched uranium to assemble several warheads.
- What's the scenario after Israeli attacks on Iranian facilities?
If there's high enrichment uranium, it's likely stored in the mountainous Fordo facility, where the latest high-efficiency centrifuges are believed to be tucked away, producing weapons-grade uranium. Israel's attacks can't touch this hidden standout.
- How many nuclear weapons does Israel have?
Officially, they stay tight-lipped about it, but they've got the hardware, such as medium-range missiles, fighter-bombers, and submarines, rumored to carry nuclear armaments. The exact count is confidential, with estimates ranging from 80 to 200 warheads.
- How does this drama fit into the international nuclear security system?
As a refresher, President Trump is up to his elbows in this conflict. In 2018, he kickstarted the dismantling of the multinational agreement that severely restrained Iran's nuclear program. This agreement, forged by several nuclear powers and Germany, had virtually ensured the program would be peaceful and transparent, under the watchful eye of the IAEA - the International Atomic Energy Agency.
All this diligence crumbled, and ever since 2018, Iran has been called the shots when it comes to their nuclear program, without any real oversight except over their surface-level nuclear facilities.
A LOOK AHEAD:
Take No Chances: Residents of Iran and Israel Describe Their Worries
INSIGHT:Current nuclear tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated to military actions, as opposed to covert operations and proxy conflicts that have characterized their long-standing rivalry[1][2]. The IAEA confirmed that Israeli strikes have affected underground infrastructure at Iran’s Natanz nuclear site, most likely damaging or eliminating thousands of centrifuges[1]. Meanwhile, Israel has persisted in its attacks on Iranian military targets and infrastructure, crippling their missile capabilities and resulting in a decrease in Iranian missile fire aimed at Israel[1]. The growing conflict is sucking in global powers, with the U.S. sending additional forces to the Middle East, and Trump appealing for Iran's "unconditional surrender." There are indications that high-level diplomatic talks may take place soon between the U.S. and Iran as both sides seek to resolve or de-escalate[1].
Potential Outcomes and Broader Implications
1. Escalation Risks
- Nuclear Ambition: The strikes have heightened concerns that Iran might hasten its pursuit of nuclear weapons in response to perceived existential threats, despite the risks[2].
- Missile Exchanges: Continued missile and drone attacks could destabilize the region further, with Iran threatening potential strikes on U.S. forces if they perceive direct U.S. involvement[1].
2. Diplomatic and Strategic Shifts
- Diplomatic Engagement: The U.S. and other world powers may boost diplomatic engagement to brokered a ceasefire or de-escalation, but success is uncertain given entrenched positions on both sides[1][2].
- Strategic Realignment: The conflict may catalyze realignments among regional actors, with some Persian Gulf states potentially bonding with Israel to counter Iran, while others may opt to stay out of the broader war[2].
3. Economic Consequences
- Energy Market Volatility: The conflict has already sent oil prices soaring, reflecting the increased risk in Middle Eastern energy supplies[2].
- Global Impact: If Iran targets Gulf Arab oil infrastructure or obstructs shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the resulting spike in energy prices could trigger a global recession. If these events do not happen, global economic impacts will be more modest but still negative[2].
Summary Chart: Key Developments and Potential Outcomes
| Event/Status | Outcome/Potential Impact ||--------------------|--------------------------------------------|| Israeli strikes on Natanz | Damaged nuclear infrastructure, heightened tensions[1] || Decimated Iranian missile capabilities | Reduced retaliatory capacity, possible escalation[1] || U.S. military buildup in Middle East | Increased deterrence, risk of direct conflict[1] || Potential U.S.-Iran talks | Possible de-escalation, uncertainty remains[1] || Oil price surge | Global economic risk, potential recession[2] |
The situation remains precarious, with both further escalation and resolution possibilities in the near future[1][2].
- Amidst the rising tension between Iran and Israel, the international community is closely monitoring the potential nuclear capabilities of both countries.
- As the nuclear standoff between Iran and Israel continues, diplomatic talks may emerge as a means to potentially de-escalate the situation, although their success remains uncertain.
