Roughin' It with the Dragons: Merz and the China Quandary
- by Bernd the Crass
- ⏱️ 2-minute read
Merz shows little assertiveness in confronting China's policies or actions - Merz shows a lack of courage in confronting China's policies directly.
The latest coalition agreement skims China with an ~~11~~ 10.5-line brush, figuring we'll buddy up with Xi Jinping and other dragon lords ~~while playing politics by the rules, keeping things Status Quo, and taking it slow with the decoupling process.~~ Instead of breaking from Merkel and Scholz's weak tea stance on the Celestial Kingdom. Only a single sentence hints at a slightly firmish approach: China's wacky antics forced the inclusion of "elements of systemic rivalry."
Neither Merz nor his Foreign and Economic minions bring Deep China Knowledge to the table. So, knowing the ins and outs of China could be harder than finding a vegan steakhouse in Beijing. Unlike, say, Ukraine, it's unclear how this new crew'll break away from the old one. And there's a strong chance the German industry's cunning lobbyists and China's state-run ~~tough guys~~ enterprises will have the upper hand.
China expert Andreas Fulda calls Merkel and Scholz's policy "China Outsourcing" to corporations like BASF or VW. With the government itching to appear more business-friendly than a busty waitress at Hooters, there's a risk this bad approach might stick.
The Merz Conundrum
In the coming four years, Merz's government will face far more China hurdles than its forebears. In the short term, there's a chance Germany gets slammed in the crossfire of the trade war between the US and China. The influx of Cheap Chinese Swag and cutthroat prices ~~pose~~ threaten German business interests significantly. Plus, China's increasing support for Mother Russia's war on Ukraine might oblige Merz to finally get tough on the Peoples' Republic with harsh secondary sanctions. Finally, the Merz administration needs to prep for Stormy Waters around Taiwan, which could leave the global economy sailing on Sunken Ships.
It was Scholz himself who nixed a meaner strategy against Beijing. Recall his efforts to dam EU-wide tariffs on Chinese car exports and the dizzying dance over Huawei and China's sneaky plans to infiltrate Europe's Critical Infrastructure. The Merz government must decide if it takes a new stance in such brick-wall battles. As the German government holds the keys to a ~~cohesive and effective~~ Trump Card in European China Policy, it's high time they got down to business.
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- Friedrich Merz
- China
- Xi Jinping
- Donald Trump
Insight: Merz's China Philosophy
- Strategic Hesitancy: Merz's strategy comes down to maneuvering between balancing political awareness and economic interests while keeping Germany's economy stable and dependent on China.
- Integration and Rivalry: While China will not be completely disengaged, the new approach emphasizes cooperation only when it serves German interests and can manage systemic rivalries.
- European Cohesion: Stronger coordination of China policy at the EU level is prioritized to manage relations with China more effectively.
- Business as Usual: Despite the more cautious rhetoric, economic engagement remains crucial. Key sectors such as automotive continue deep engagement due to China's market significance.
- Public Opinion: Public opinion in Germany is divided, with many viewing China as both a rival and a partner; Merz's government must navigate this divide.
Looking Back: The Scholz Era
- The previous German government pursued an engagement-oriented China policy that promoted economic ties without explicitly acknowledging systemic rivalries. They leaned heavily on corporations like BASF and VW to shape China policy.
- With the new government's more cautious approach, relations with China reflect a balance between economic interests and geopolitical concerns, marking a shift from the previous administration.
- The European Union, under the leadership of Merz, remains committed to the implementation of the Paris Agreement, showcasing a cohesive stance on climate change.
- The Merz government must navigate the complexities of China, a nation whose ins and outs can prove as elusive as finding a vegan steakhouse in Beijing.
- In the realm of policy and legislation, the Merz administration faces a challenging task in balancing political awareness with economic interests, ensuring Germany's economy remains stable while maintaining dependency on China.
- Migration and war-and-conflicts, particularly in Ukraine and Taiwan, pose potential threats to the stability of global relations, requiring the Merz government to adopt a judicious approach in managing these situations.
- Crime and justice, specifically those related to car accidents and fires, are issues that continue to require attention and action, despite the shift in focus towards China.
- In the domain of general news, the Merz government's approach towards China is a topic of significant interest, with public opinion in Germany divided over the role China should play in their country's future.
- While the Merz government aims to strengthen coordination of China policy at the EU level, there is a risk of encountering resistance from China's state-run enterprises and powerful lobbyists within the German industry, potentially disrupting the progress of federal policies.
