Titled Tussle: Merz Goes Head-to-Head with Trump - A Necessary Gamble
A Tough Sit-Down: Merz's Trip to the Oval Office - Key Talking Points
Merz embarks on a harsh, challenging endeavor.
The air is electric as Chancellor Friedrich Merz boards his plane for Washington, ready to face President Donald Trump in a highly anticipated meeting. With escalating tensions and significant issues at stake, this has become more than just a friendly chat - it's a challenging negotiation.
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The list of possible missteps is staggering. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was publicly humiliated, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa endured bitter reprimands, and Germany is known for catching Trump's ire. From German cars in America to defence issues and allegations of censorship, Germany has been a recurring target. Will Trump spare Merz his wrath? With Trump's Vice President, JD Vance, openly supporting the AfD, speculation abounds.
Moreover, the timing couldn't be more crucial. If Merz can forge a connection with Trump, it could prove instrumental in resolving at least three major challenges: Ukraine, trade, and joint defense within NATO.
Ukraine and Sanctions
Merz staunchly supports Ukraine and urges Trump to follow suit. Trump, however, envisions himself as a broker of peace, eager to sweep the issue under the rug. He's even been speculated to be aiming for the Nobel Peace Prize.
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Merz aims to convince Trump to join in imposing sanctions. For Trump, this would be a significant departure – he'd have to abandon his mediator role. While Biden's sanctions remain in place, and the US continues to provide weapons, none of this would be initiated by Trump.
Merz's journey to Washington arrives at a potentially strategic moment. After Russia's sweeping airstrikes, Trump expressed his dissatisfaction with Putin. Just recently, he stated after a marathon call with Putin that peace is not imminent. Meanwhile, the Senate is advocating for sanctions. The idea originated with Republican Lindsey Graham, who met with Merz in Berlin last Monday. Graham told the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" that Merz should acknowledge Trump's role in lifting sanctions against Syria and demonstrate Germany's resolve to bear hardship.
Trade and Tariffs
Trump is inconsistent in his priorities – he lacks steadfast convictions, except for his ardent support for tariffs. He's been demanding tariffs for decades, with China topping his list, but the EU isn't far behind. He argues the EU was founded to exploit the US, which is false. Its purpose was to promote internal trade and peace within Europe.
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Trump overlooks the services sector. US corporations like Meta, Alphabet, and Apple hold immense profits from Europe through online services – income that doesn't factor into Trump's equation.
At the same time, he considers the value-added tax a tariff. CDU foreign policy expert Jürgen Hardt recently clarified in the Bundestag that this is not the case. Any input tax can be deducted from the tax burden, he explained. Merz may have to persuade Trump to rethink this. He will advocate for easing tariffs, ideally to zero – a win-win situation for both countries. Failure to do so might allow China to strengthen its influence in Europe. Norbert Röttgen, a party colleague of Merz, recently warned of this in the Bundestag.
Steps towards an agreement may be possible. Trump faces legal battles in the US. A court has deemed his tariffs unlawful. Although they remain in effect until a final verdict, Trump might present a new trade agreement with the EU as a triumph. This could also heighten pressure on China.
Defense and NATO
Trump views Europeans as being defended by Americans while they enjoy leisurely times. He sees NATO not as a collective alliance for freedom and peace but as a US service for Europeans, deeming them delinquent payers. Criticism of European defense spending, particularly in Germany, is not unfounded – many experts agree.
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Trump has publicly threatened to abandon NATO. This would signal the end of NATO. While other military resources might be possible, the nuclear umbrella would be at stake. If the US were to cease protecting Europe's security with its nuclear missiles, Europe would be susceptible to Putin's threats. This would be an unprecedented disaster for German foreign policy. Yet, it would not serve US interests either.
To Trump's credit, Merz can share promising news. Germany plans to significantly boost its defense spending. The goal is no longer 2% of GDP, but 5%. However, this represents only a moderate increase – approximately 3.5% for defense and 1.5% for infrastructure crucial for a defense scenario. The benefits for defense can be argued in various ways.
Regardless, Merz has compelling arguments. German defense spending will rise substantially – something that Trump could also hail as a victory for himself.
Enrichment Insights:
The meeting between Chancellor Friedrich Merz and US President Donald Trump was expected to revolve around vital topics, including Ukraine, tariffs (trade), and potential defense strategies. Here's how these discussions might shape Germany's relationship with the US:
Key Points
- Ukraine:
- Discussions about Ukraine centered around the conflict and resolution efforts. Chancellor Merz unequivocally supported Ukraine and advocated for joint sanctions.
- Trump's stance oscillated between broker of peace and reluctant participant, with occasional ideas of pursuing a Nobel Peace Prize.
- Impact: These talks might strengthen transatlantic cooperation on Ukraine, but differing views on sanctions could create tension.
- Tariffs (Trade):
- The meeting touched upon escalating trade tensions, with Trump doubling steel and aluminum tariffs.
- Impact: Tariff discussions could yield increased tension or a more favorable trade environment depending on the outcome. Germany sought relief from these tariffs to protect its manufacturing sector.
- Defense:
- Although defense was not explicitly articulated among the primary topics, broader security issues inevitably encompassed defense strategies and cooperation.
- Impact: Enhanced defense cooperation may strengthen the alliance between Germany and the US, especially amid European security challenges.
Impact on Germany-US Relationship
- Improved Diplomacy: The meeting could lead to enhanced diplomatic ties if both leaders find common ground on critical issues like Ukraine. Merz's efforts to engage with Trump could foster a stronger bilateral relationship.
- Trade and Economic Relations: The outcome of tariff discussions will significantly impact trade relations. If the US and Germany can find a mutually favorable solution, this could bolster economic cooperation.
- Strategic Alignment: Alignment on defense and security issues – particularly concerning Ukraine and Russia – may strengthen strategic cooperation between the two nations.
- Given the recurring tensions between EC countries and the current US administration, the meeting between Chancellor Friedrich Merz and President Donald Trump presents an opportunity for intense political discussions, focusing on critical matters such as Ukraine, trade, and defense policy.
- The fate of the Ukraine-US relationship and the possibility of joint sanctions on Russia is at the forefront of Merz's talks with Trump. However, Trump's conflicting stances as a peace broker and his aspirations for a Nobel Peace Prize could complicate matters, potentially leading to divergent views on sanctions.
