Opinion: Friedrich Merz Takes a Tougher Stance on China
- by Bernd Ziesemer
- 2 Min
Merz demonstrates timidness in confronting China's policies - Merz Demonstrates Lacking Courage in Confronting China
The new coalition agreement of the German government dedicates only 11 lines to China out of a total of 146 pages. It aims to work together with Xi Jinping, demand adherence to rules, continue a "de-risking" policy, and coordinate with the European Union and other Western partners. It appears to be the same old approach as under Olaf Scholz and Angela Merkel - nothing new. Only one sentence in the document hints at a tougher stance - "The elements of systemic rivalry" have been brought to the fore by China's actions.
Neither Chancellor Friedrich Merz nor his Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul and his Minister of Economics Katherina Reiche possess extensive knowledge of China. Therefore, filling in the gaps in the contract with practical politics will be a challenge. Unlike in the Ukraine policy, it is unclear how the new government intends to differentiate itself from the old one. There is a risk that German industry lobbyists and Chinese state-owned companies continue to exert their influence, much like before.
The term "outsourced" in the previous government's China policy came from expert Andreas Fulda, as Merkel and Scholz handed significant companies like BASF and VW considerable power in China. With the new government positioning itself as particularly "business-friendly," it's possible that this flawed strategy could persist.
Challenges Facing Friedrich Merz's China Policy
In the coming four years, the Merz government is likely to face stronger challenges regarding China than its predecessors. In the short term, there is a risk of Germany getting caught in the crossfire between the US and China in the trade war. Chinese exports and dumping prices pose significant threats to German economic interests. Furthermore, growing support for Russia's war against Ukraine could force the new government to finally impose secondary sanctions against Chinese companies. Lastly, there is the potential for the situation around Taiwan to further escalate, with dire consequences for the world economy.
Olaf Scholz himself resisted a tougher stance towards Beijing. Recall attempts to prevent EU-level tariffs on Chinese auto exports or the strange back and forth around Huawei and China's attempts to infiltrate Europe's critical infrastructure. The Merz government will have to decide whether it will take a different course in such concrete disputes. In doing so, it holds the "key to a more cohesive and effective European stance towards China," according to foreign policy expert Noah Barkin in the latest newsletter of the German Marshall Funds.
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- Friedrich Merz
- China
- Xi Jinping
- Donald Trump
Insights:
- The new German government under Friedrich Merz is expected to adopt a more politically hawkish stance toward China compared to previous administrations, focusing on systemic rivalry, de-risking, European coordination, and public warnings [3].
- Germany’s policy shift is partly a response to the perceived economic risks of overreliance on China, particularly in critical sectors and supply chains [3].
- In contrast to the previous administration's more pragmatic and engagement-focused approach, Merz's government is likely to take a more openly cautious and de-risking-oriented stance in its China policy [3].
[3] Information from enrichment data.
- The European Union, under Friedrich Merz's leadership, has reiterated its commitment to the implementation of the Paris Agreement, indicating a potential shift in its stance towards China's environmental policies in line with its focus on systemic rivalry.
- As the new government navigates the challenges posed by China, it may find itself contemplating the imposition of sanctions, a policy tool not extensively used in the previous administration's dealing with China.
- Given the mounting political tensions between the US and China, the Merz government might need to navigate careful politics to ensure Germany's general news headlines do not reflect the country getting caught in the crossfire of the trade war.
- In the realm of policy-and-legislation, the Merz government's adherence to rules in relation to China may involve coordinating with the European Union, particularly in matters concerning trade, as they work together to maintain a cohesive stance.
