Meloni's strategy for interaction with Africa faces potential jeopardy in Libya
In the heart of North Africa, Libya continues to grapple with endemic instability, a challenge that threatens to undermine Italy's long-term cooperation strategy in Africa. This instability is particularly evident in Libya, as well as in other countries of the Mattei Plan, which includes Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Mozambique.
One of the key figures in Libya's turbulent landscape is Al-Kikli, a militia leader who has been making headlines recently. In March, Al-Kikli was spotted in Rome, two months after the Najim affair. His presence in Italy raised eyebrows, given the controversies surrounding his activities in Libya.
Al-Kikli's influence in Libya has been growing. He was approved by the Presidential Council and integrated into Tripoli-based institutions such as the interior ministry. His control extended to areas west and east of Tripoli, including Gharian and Zliten, where he played a significant role in the 'Volcano of Rage' military campaign defending Tripoli against the 2019 offensive led by Field Marshal Haftar.
However, the situation in Libya remains precarious. The more likely outcome is that despite a superficial calm in Tripoli, the risk of renewed violence is real. If Mr. Dbeibeh's government collapses under militia pressure, existing migration agreements would unravel, leaving a power vacuum that might be filled by General Haftar. This could force Italy to renegotiate deals under less favorable terms and risk further reputational damage.
Italy's engagement with Libyan authorities and militias has been a subject of controversy. Critics argue that the Italian government's efforts to partner with local militias to curb smuggling and migration have strengthened these groups at the expense of Libya's institutional stability.
Rome's approach to Libya has been marked by ambiguity. On one hand, the Italian government has engaged with Prime Minister Dbeibeh's Tripoli-based GNU. On the other hand, it has also engaged with the eastern-based authorities in Tobruk, including General Haftar.
In May 2023, specific militia leaders in Libya who were assassinated and their connections to the government in Rome are not detailed in the provided search results. However, it is clear that the relationship between Libya and Italy is complex and fraught with challenges.
The most challenging scenario sees Italy rise to the role of international mediator, accompanied by progress in the internal political dialogue in Libya, an improvement in migration flows, and in the conditions of the exiles themselves. Such progress would require significant stabilization in Libya, which currently resembles more a 'proto-state' - fragmented and feudal - than a functioning democracy.
In conclusion, Italy's role in Libya is a delicate balancing act. While the country seeks to address migration and security issues, it must navigate the complexities of Libya's internal politics and the risks of further destabilization. The future of Italy's relationship with Libya remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the situation in Libya continues to evolve, and Italy's approach will need to adapt accordingly.
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