Scoreboard Shaking Up: Nagelsmann and the Numbers - "A Precarious Edge"
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- Mathematics and Nagelsmann: "Perilous Outcome"
Julian Nagelsmann's voice was barely a whisper after Germany's first win in Italy since 1986. "I'm still hanging in there," he wheezed, going over the 2:1 (0:1) victory of the German national team in the Nations League quarterfinal first leg at the Giuseppe-Meazza Stadium, a match that had him on edge.
When an Italian reporter asked what the result meant for the second leg on Sunday (20:45 CET/RTL) at the sold-out stadium in Dortmund, Nagelsmann responded: "It's a precarious edge, we've only got a one-goal lead."
"No, we're not being overconfident or complacent," said the German coach and his players, following their come-from-behind victory in the second half, teeming with determination and shrewd player swaps. "But of course, the advantage is now clearly with us. More than half the journey to a Final Four tournament in Germany in early June is done, right?" Nagelsmann remarked, "From a coach's perspective, I'd say 50-50, but if you ask a statistician or someone who understands odds, they'd say, 'What kind of bunk is that?'" Of course, his team is now sitting pretty with a better chance of going through because they've scored an extra goal."
However, Nagelsmann already laid out the game plan for the return leg in Dortmund: "We should all start the return leg as if it's 0:0. We need to aim for a win, then we don't have to do any calculations."
The next step in the journey
Captain Joshua Kimmich, who set up the header goals of substitute Tim Kleindienst and the returning player Leon Goretzka, also charted the course for the second meeting against Italy: "We want to win," the 30-year-old said with determination.
That it was the first German win in Italy in 39 years was just a passing thought for Nagelsmann: "I'm no history buff. I knew the fact. But the most important thing is that we won the first game. And now, we want to win the second one as well."
He applauded his team for taking a significant stride forward. After falling behind early to Sandro Tonali's goal, they didn't flinch and remained composed. He spoke of "a newfound resilience" in staying calm even when behind.
"Remarkable turnaround" courtesy of Goretzka
In addition, he made critical personnel and tactical changes at the break, bringing on goal scorer Kleindienst and defender Nico Schlotterbeck. "You need players who are itching to come on and eager to change the game. Schlotti delivered a strong performance, and Tim did what he had to do – score the goal." Also commendable were a solid performance from goalkeeper Oliver Baumann, a model leader in Kimmich, and, above all, the 30-year-old Goretzka, who capped his 58th international appearance after a 16-month hiatus from the German squad with the winning goal. "A remarkable comeback from Leon after everything that transpired," Nagelsmann said with pride.
- International
- Italy
- Statistics
- Milan
- German Football Association
- Julian Nagelsmann
- German national team
- Dortmund
- Leon Goretzka
- Joshua Kimmich
- Nations League
- Sunday
- Tim Kleindienst
- RTL
- Germany
Insights:
- To gauge Germany's probability of progressing in the Nations League Final Four, it's essential to consider their recent performance and the structure of the tournament.
- Germany demonstrated their prowess in tight situations by emerging victorious in the quarterfinals, showcasing resilience and tactical acumen under Julian Nagelsmann.
- The Nations League Final Four follows a knockout format, where progress depends on winning each specific match. This structure does not inherently favor any team, ensuring an engaging and suspenseful competition.
- Mathematically, the probability of progression tends to be 50% for each match, given the format's nature. However, considering Germany's recent form and tactical strengths under Nagelsmann, their confidence and competence may give them a slight edge.
- Striking the right balance between offensive and defensive play will be key to sealing the deal for Germany in the Final Four.
- Germany's victory in the Nations League quarterfinal against Italy is seen as a significant step towards the Final Four tournament in early June, held in Germany, due to their one-goal lead after the first leg.
- Julian Nagelsmann, the German coach, has stressed the importance of approaching the return leg as if it's 0:0, highlighting the need for a win to avoid calculations and secure progress in the tournament.
- In the first leg, Julian Nagelsmann demonstrated his tactical acumen by making shrewd player swaps and capitalizing on the 'remarkable turnaround' orchestrated by Leon Goretzka, who scored the winning goal after a 16-month hiatus from the German squad.
