Match 5 Prediction for Oilers vs Golden Knights, alongside Odds and Start Time (14th May)
Game 5 of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs showdown between the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights is here, and the Golden Knights are still the slight favorites, despite a 3-1 series deficit
The Oilers put on a defensive clinic last game, shutting out Vegas 3-0 and holding them to just 23 shots. Vegas' offense seems to be struggling, with only four goals in the last two games.
But surprisingly, the Golden Knights are -125 moneyline home favorites in the Oilers vs Golden Knights odds. You might be wondering why, even with their intense matchup so far. Here's a lowdown on the factors at play:
- Home Territory Advantage: Vegas' home field advantage cannot be ignored. The Golden Knights have a fantastic record at T-Mobile Arena, going 29-9-3 during the regular season and 2-1 in the first round.
- Going by the Stats: Statistics and analysis play a significant role in setting odds. Advanced models might be hinting at a higher likelihood of the Golden Knights winning, given their impressive regular season record.
- Underdog Status: Edmonton, being the underdogs (+100 on the moneyline), suggests the odds makers believe they're less likely to win in this game, despite their series lead.
- Injuries and Roster Changes: Any recent injuries or changes in the lineup could impact the odds, but we don't have specific information about it for this match.
- Public Opinion and Betting Trends: Public betting trends and market sentiment can also sway the odds. If the public is heavily betting on the Golden Knights, it could push the odds in their favor.
Now, despite the odds, let's take a look at my prediction for Game 5:
- Under 6.5 Total Goals ( 105 at Bet365)
I'm expecting a nail-biting, low-scoring affair that could swing either way. Vegas' offense seems to be on ice, and the Oilers are dominating with their structured defensive play. Splitting the game into smaller sections:
Why I'm Betting on the Under:
*Edmonton Defense: In Game 4, Edmonton proved their worth in defense, limiting Vegas to 23 shots and few high-danger chances in a shutout win.
*Structured Defense: The Oilers have been shutting down their opponents, with a 60.2% expected goals share and 55.2% Corsi For percentage over their past eight games.
*Goaltending: Stuart Skinner is heating up at the right time for Edmonton, posting a solid 2.41 GAA and .912 save percentage. Adin Hill, though performing unevenly, has a solid save percentage at T-Mobile Arena before the playoffs.
*Vegas Offense: Vegas' offense has been struggling, with no high-danger chances in Game 4 and just four goals in the last two games. A potential elimination game might not prompt Vegas to take risks early on, resulting in fewer goals.
The oilers have a strong trend for the Under, with the mettle being 33-22 in their last 55 road games and 40-28 in the Golden Knights' last 68 overall.
As the stakes are high, I'm expecting a low-scoring, tightly-contested battle. Take the Under 6.5 at generous plus-money odds.
- The moneyline for Game 5 of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs between the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights reveals a surprising discrepancy, with the Golden Knights being -125 home favorites, despite their 3-1 series deficit.
- One reason for this anomaly in the Oilers vs Golden Knights odds might be the home territory advantage, considering the Golden Knights' impressive regular season and playoff record at T-Mobile Arena.
- Edmonton, being the underdogs with +100 on the moneyline, suggests oddsmakers believe they're less likely to win this game, despite their series lead.
- Although the exact influence of injuries and roster changes on the odds is unknown, it plays a significant role in shaping sports betting odds, especially in high-stakes matches like Game 5.
- The public's betting trends and market sentiment can also impact the odds, potentially pushing Vegas further ahead in the moneyline, even as the underdog Oilers hold a series lead.
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