Mastering the Chip Leader Role at the Final Table: Insights into ICM Strategy

You've bagged a spot at the final table of the tournament! You're doing great, sitting in second place out of the remaining eight players. But here's the deal: the chip leader is your neighbor to the left, and they've got a boatload of chips compared to yours. You're essentially playing at their table, and your stack forces you to tread carefully.

Now, the opportunity arises. Situated in late position, you open with a min-raise, hoping to snatch the blinds... but the chip leader calls! What's the next move? You're fairly certain they don't have a top hand; otherwise, it'd have been a 3-bet on the flop. You want to keep the pressure up on the flop, but you're worried about a full-on showdown that could knock you down a few spots in the chip count.

This article will equip you with some essential tools for making tough decisions under final table and ICM pressure. However, understanding post-flop strategy calls for a strong foundation in pre-flop play.

Hand Scenario - What Happened Pre-Flop

Final table of eight players, average stack of 30 BB. Player on CO, second in chips (35 BB), opens with a min-raise. SB, the chip leader with 75 BB, calls.

For context, let's break down the chip distribution among players:

In this situation, CO should open 26% of hands - a lot less than the 37% open in a ChipEV model. Even if SB can't aggressively re-raise, CO must play cautiously. Their range primarily consists of broadways and almost all Ax hands.

SB's call comprises Ax hands, small pocket pairs, and suited connectors. These hands in SB stand a good chance of realizing their equity due to ICM pressure on CO.

Equity Distribution on Flops

CO's range dominates on broadway flops with an ace. SB's range performs better on low, coordinated boards.

It might seem that in this scenario, the player on CO can raise continuation bets on the flop frequently, but in reality, in this specific ICM situation, such bets aren't necessary at all.

SB tends to c-bet more on flops where they have more equity, but their lead distribution isn't always optimal. They bet around half of their range on texture, much more frequently than on texture or , despite having more equity on the second and third streets.

CO also does not have a clear correlation between the strength of their hand and their betting frequency. They only bet with half of their range on the flop, despite having a substantial 65% equity, and they often c-bet on the flop with only 55% equity.

These inconsistencies make sense under the pressure of ICM. The optimal strategy under such pressure often involves preserving as many chips as possible in one's stack in safe situations, rather than committing them to a pot with an equity advantage.

Specifically, CO aims to protect:

Their equity in the current pot;
Their overall tournament equity in their stack.

These two objectives sometimes clash, as protecting equity in the pot often requires betting to protect against draws and/or calling to avoid bluffs, which both involve additional risk. However, these objectives also determine when CO has the most motivation to bet. They bet more frequently when:

They have a lot of equity to protect;
A significant portion of this equity is vulnerable to free cards;
They have strong hands in their range that can prevent the chip leader from raising unpunished.

With these principles in mind, let's delve deeper into CO's surprising strategies on the flop.

Different Flop Textures and CO Strategies

On a static board, CO makes few c-bets and plays from the check.
On static boards, CO adopts a polarized strategy: c-bets with both value and bluffs, weak hands check.
On dynamic flops, CO c-bets more frequently.
On less dynamic boards, CO bets with strong but vulnerable hands.

Responding to Donk-Bets

On dynamic boards, like , CO can raise even a small SB donk-bet - especially with QQ, JJ, TT.

On static boards, like , CO doesn't raise - there's no need to protect the hand.

On the flop, CO has almost no equity. They don't bet, don't raise. Even with a strong hand, they don't want to add to the pot.

It's crucial to understand that k-bets in such spots are often made not to increase the stack, but to protect equity. Even if the board appears to favor you, ask yourself, "How can I protect my stack?" instead of "How can I take down the whole pot?"

Choose strong but vulnerable hands for k-bets. Don't fear checking with monsters if continuation play could be risky. In situations under ICM pressure, the ability to keep the chips you already have is just as important as gaining new ones.

Once you start understanding how to balance risk and protect equity in a given situation, you'll be able to collect additional key pots - even in situations against the chip leader at the final table.

In light of the tournament's final table, the CO, holding 35 BB and second in chips, should be more cautious with their min-raise openings, considering the Chip EV model suggests a 37% open rate, whereas the current situation necessitates a reduction to 26%.
The flop texture plays a crucial role in both player's strategies. A broadway flop favors the CO with an ace in their hand, while a low, coordinated board benefits the chip leader (SB) due to ICM pressure.
On dynamic flops, the CO may employ a surprising strategy, raising even a small SB donk-bet with strong, vulnerable hands such as QQ, JJ, or TT, aiming to protect their equity instead of taking down the whole pot.