Stepping Up: Turkmesty’s Gas Export Dreams and the Turkey Connection
Market Chaos in Kabul, Turkmenistan
Things are moving and shaking in the gas export game with Turkmenistan, and Turkey's in the mix. Let's dive in!
Turkmen National Leader Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, the big cheese of Turkmenistan, set sail to Turkey on March 1st for the Antalya Diplomatic Forum—and boy, did they make a splash! The old man gifted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan an ichmek, a traditional Turkmen sheepskin robe, fittingly bestowed upon wise elders. The elder Berdymukhamedov's son, President Serdar Berdymukhamedov, showed his support with a decree conferring the title Honorary Elder of Turkmenistan on Erdogan a few days prior.
The meeting resulted in lofty documents between the two countries that, in theory, could be the keys to unlocking Turkmen gas exports to Turkey. One of them was a Memorandum of Understanding on boosting cooperation in the natural gas sector, while the other was a Declaration of Intent that sets the stage for joint ventures in the hydrocarbon sector.
Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar got straight to the point, tweeting, "With the signatures, we aim to transport Turkmen gas first to Turkey and then to global markets."
Official Turkmen accounts were a tad more cryptic, alluding to discussions on the supply of Turkmen natural gas under a swap scheme. As for the long-awaited Trans-Caspian pipeline, swap agreements appear to be the most realistic option—at least for now.
Turkey's current gas imports travel through pipelines from Azerbaijan, Iran, and Russia. Meanwhile, Turkmenistan exports gas to Iran's remote northeastern regions, so a three-way gas swap between these countries could be on the table. Unfortunately, a similar arrangement with Azerbaijan and Iran collapsed in January and doesn't seem to be in the works anytime soon.
Washington's cool with Turkey and Turkmenistan potentially collaborating with Iran on gas exports. In January, the U.S. ambassador to Turkmenistan, Matthew Klimow, told reporters that swap deals involving Iran aren't a sanctions violation, as long as they're properly structured.
Meanwhile, in more local news, the Ashgabat-based TAPI Pipeline Limited Corporation is collaborating with the Taliban-led Afghan government to construct a 150-kilometer pipeline section to Herat. The ultimate goal: supplying gas to industrial enterprises and households in western Afghanistan. While the specifics of this implementation are unclear, one thing is for sure—it's all about strengthening ties.
The recent week in Turkmenistan was all about Afghanistan. On March 4th, a three-day Afghan goods trade fair opened in Ashgabat, showcasing products for both parties to get in on the action. The Afghan Commerce and Industry Minister Nooruddin Azizi was even on-site to reassure concerned parties that Afghanistan's new canal project, slated to divert Amu Darya River water, wouldn’t jeopardize Turkmenistan's interests.
In practical terms, Turkmenistan is stepping up its electricity exports to Afghanistan. Turkmen Energy Ministry official Myrat Artykov recently announced that in 2024, Turkmenistan would provide 1.8 billion kilowatt hours of electricity to Afghanistan—an increase from the 1.4 billion kilowatt hours delivered in 2023. The future plan? Building 500 kilovolt power lines to reach more areas, possibly including Kabul.
The TAP (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan) power line will be implemented by Turkey's Calyk Holding company. The project will occur in three phases, connecting hydroelectric power stations in Turkmenistan with industrial sectors and households in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
It's not all sunshine and roses in the world of gas feasts; they're slower moving than a snail on a hot day. But stay tuned—things are stirring in this game of global politics and energy production!
- The weather could play a crucial role in the transportation of Turkmen gas to Turkey, as the pipelines are susceptible to extreme temperatures and weather conditions.
- In light of the growing business ventures between Turkmenistan and Turkey, it's important to keep a close eye on health and safety regulations in the hydrocarbon sector to ensure a sustainable industry.
- The news of Turkmenistan's increased electricity exports to Afghanistan has been met with both excitement and concern regarding the health and environmental impacts of potential power line expansions, especially in densely populated areas like Kabul.
