Mark Carney's pledge of a 1% immigrant influx: An interpretation
"Ain't no holds barred" as the new Mark Carney**-led Liberal government takes on the task of fixing the seemingly broken immigration system, a contentious issue for some segments of the populace. During the election, they pledged to keep permanent immigration at less than 1% of the Canadian population after 2027. Does this figure seem high or low? And how does it stack up against historical rates?
To snag the prime minister's seat, Mr. Carney sought to differentiate himself from the immigration policies of his immediate predecessor, Justin Trudeau. However, according to Richard Marcoux, the director of the Observatory on Demographic and Statistical Studies of the Francophone Space, the 1% target is nearly identical to what Canada has experienced over the past decade.
In fact, it mirrors the historical average since the formation of the Confederation in 1867. In Quebec, the immigration debate has centered more on the number of immigrants admitted, with 50,000 frequently cited. "It's a different approach, but 1% corresponds to the reality of Quebec and Canada in recent years," recalls Professor Marcoux from Laval University. Proportional rather than absolute numbers might be more logical, as more immigrants keep the same weight in a growing population.
Politically Savvy Moves
Professor Marcoux explains that using a rate instead of an absolute number is "politically savvy because it puts immigration in perspective." A rate-based approach means the number of immigrants accepted increases each year, as the 1% applies to a growing population – a fact that "few people will calculate," notes Charles Breton, director of the Canada Federation Policy Centre at the Institute for Public Policy Research. The message essentially translates to, "1%, that's not much, it seems reasonable."
This stance from the Liberal Party aligns with the election campaign's tone. As Mr. Breton indicates, the goal was to dispel the "general impression of a certain loss of control." After roughly 15 to 20 years of a pro-immigration consensus at the national level, and then "very rapid" changes in public opinion, even the Liberals wanted to demonstrate a break, he says.
Demographic Growth and the 1%
By comparing the immigration rate to the demographic growth rate, it makes sense to do so since 99% of the latter is due to immigration, a trend that began in the early 1990s. Negative natural increases are common today, as there were 2,750 more deaths than births in Quebec between October 2023 and October 2024. This is also the prediction for most high-income countries this year.
Around 1% is the average demographic growth over the last 30 years according to Statistics Canada. In the "medium scenario" of their demographic projections for Canada, the federal agency also uses the historical growth rate of 1.12%. This rate would gradually decline to 0.79% by 2072-2073, resulting in roughly 63 million people.
Nations that rely largely on immigration for their demographic growth seldom exceed 1%. Below 1% can make it tough to maintain the working-age population and have consequences for the economy and pension system funding, while more than 1% might bring integration and housing construction challenges.
There is no magical immune number for population growth, contend demographic experts Michael Boissonneault of the University of Montreal and Richard Marcoux. The 1% appears a continuation to them.
The Rise of Temporary Immigration
The real break from the past lies in the surge of temporary immigration between 2021 and 2024. Canada's demographic growth rate soared to over 3% in 2023, its highest level since the 1957 baby boom era, largely due to temporary immigration. Measures implemented to curb this sector over the past year should ensure that it doesn't increase or even decrease. Potentially resulting in a population decline as early as 2026.
We are in uncharted territory at this unique moment in history, as human history has normally witnessed a high birth and death rate. With birth rates continuing to decline since the early 2000s, the belief that they would rise has been disproven. Decreasing population size may not be on the agenda due to concerns about the economy's ability to support it.
Quebec's Dilemma
In April, Standard & Poor's downgraded Quebec's rating from AA- to A. The agency attributed this downgrade to a variety of factors, including the slowdown in demographic growth. Quebec's Bloc has highlighted throughout its campaign that the 1% target exceeds its current immigration targets of less than 80,000 permanent residents – while the province's population is approximately 9 million people. Adopting a slower pace on immigration decreases Quebec's demographic weight within Canada, as the province is the only one federally with the authority to set its own immigration levels.
While Quebec has historically accepted fewer immigrants relative to its size compared to the rest of the country, it exhibits differences in the population's composition as well. Across Canada, about 23% of the population was born abroad, while in Quebec, it's closer to 15%. The neighboring province of Ontario now boasts a population of 15.9 million inhabitants – 1.7 times the size of Quebec.
- The Liberal Party's intention to keep permanent immigration at less than 1% of the Canadian population after 2027 aligns with the historical average since the Confederation in 1867.
- A rate-based approach to immigration, such as the 1% target, is politically savvy because it puts immigration in perspective and avoids absolute numbers, allowing the number of immigrants accepted to increase each year as the population grows.
- In Quebec, the immigration debate has centered more on the number of immigrants admitted, with 50,000 frequently cited as a benchmark. However, as Professor Marcoux from Laval University suggests, a rate-based approach might be more logical since the weight of immigrants remains constant in a growing population.
- While Quebec has historically accepted fewer immigrants relative to its size compared to the rest of the country, it exhibits differences in the population's composition, with only about 15% of the population being foreign-born, compared to about 23% across Canada.
