Marit takes advantage of Bonnie's collapse, but toppling Doug requires strict control.
In the political landscape of Ontario, the Doug Ford-led Progressive Conservatives (PCs) continue to hold a formidable presence, despite receiving poor marks from a significant majority of Ontarians, as revealed by an Angus Reid poll on September 16th, 2025. The poll shows that 45% of Ontarians still intend to vote PC, a phenomenon that has left political analysts puzzled.
The root of this paradox lies in Ford's media dominance and the electorate's low awareness of alternative leaders. Marit Stiles, the newly appointed leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP), now has a second chance to tackle this issue head-on.
The PCs' perceived good relationship with Ottawa is another pillar of strength for Doug Ford's party. However, the recent Liberal meltdown at their weekend convention has redefined the strategic conditions in Ontario, temporarily disrupting the presumption that the main threat to the PCs comes from the Ontario Liberals.
The PCs' strategy to counter criticisms and maintain their dominance has been to sensationalize media and divert attention from important issues, a tactic known as "flooding the zone." This approach generates white noise and redirects media and voters to minor themes, obscuring the big story.
A better provincial partner would seek federal help on a plan to revive the manufacturing sector, an idea the Ford PCs have let drop. They have also shown disrespectful behaviour towards Prime Minister Carney, as seen in Ford's response to Carney's request for nation-building projects and his request for federal help building a fantasy tunnel under highway 401.
The opposition's central challenge is to unravel this mystery of the group that rates the PCs poorly yet supports them electorally. This job now falls to Marit Stiles and the Ontario NDP. Pivoting from the latest distraction to the big story could put Doug Ford on the defensive and create policy contrast opportunities.
Meanwhile, California Governor Gavin Newsom has successfully used trolling as a counter-tactic to the flood-the-zone strategy. As Stiles embarks on her campaign, she might find inspiration in Newsom's approach to maintain focus on the critical issues and counter Ford's media dominance.
Interestingly, only 4% of Ontarians can't state an opinion of Doug Ford, while 36% don't know enough about Stiles to make a judgement, according to Angus Reid. This lack of awareness of Stiles could provide an opportunity for the NDP to build her profile and present a viable alternative to Ford's PCs.
The race for Ontario's premiership is far from over, and the coming months will undoubtedly see intense political maneuvering and strategic positioning. The key to the election will be in Stiles' ability to challenge Ford's media dominance and present a clear, compelling vision for Ontario's future.
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