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Marit takes advantage of Bonnie's breakdown, yet overthrowing Doug requires genuine self-control.

Ontario NDP needs to tighten its message control to outdo Doug Ford's communications strategy, beginning with establishing a clear stance, as per Tom Parkin's analysis dated September 16th, 2025, in Burlington, ON.

Marit takes advantage of Bonnie's collapse for her opening, but it'll require substantial restraint...
Marit takes advantage of Bonnie's collapse for her opening, but it'll require substantial restraint to defeat Doug.

Marit takes advantage of Bonnie's breakdown, yet overthrowing Doug requires genuine self-control.

Marit Stiles, the new leader of the Ontario NDP, finds herself in a pivotal position as she steps into the political fray against Premier Doug Ford. Stiles' ascension to the leadership role came following the Ontario Liberals' implosion at their weekend convention, leaving her as the main opposition contender.

The challenge before Stiles is significant. Ford's media dominance has resulted in a low voter awareness of Stiles, a symptom of the root problem she now has a second chance to tackle. With Ford often commenting on issues not in his bailiwick and 36% of Ontarians not knowing enough about Stiles to make a judgement, the task of breaking Ford's media dominance is a formidable one.

The narrative of Ontario politics has long been dominated by Ford, and Stiles now has an opportunity to redefine the political narrative, with herself in the role of main protagonist. Kicking down the one strong pillar of Ford's support might be easier than thought, and could combine well with an effort to tell the big story about what's wrong with Ontario, and why it doesn't get fixed.

Ford's response to Prime Minister Carney's request for nation-building projects was poor and offensive, requesting federal help for a fantasy tunnel under highway 401 and pushing the Ring of Fire onto Ottawa's lap after seven years of making no progress. This could be a point of contrast for Stiles, as a better provincial partner might seek federal help on a plan to revive Ontario's industrial base, but Ford does not appear to believe there's a jobs problem.

On the other hand, Angus Reid's data indicates that among the 15 issues tested, only on the province's relationship with Ottawa do a majority find the Ford PCs have done a good job. However, the group of Ontarians who rate the PCs poorly but support them electorally is a key to Ford's continuation as Ontario premier.

In the United States, some strategies to counter a flood-the-zone strategy, such as the one Ford appears to employ, include reminding reporters that journalism is more than writing down government leaders' comments and exposing planted partisan gossip as accidental information leaks. California Governor Gavin Newsom has successfully used trolling the absurdity and inanity deployed to keep the zone flooded as a counter-tactic.

Framing Ontario politics as a choice between Ford and a credible alternative could help explain why only 27% believe Ontario is on the right track but 45% would vote for the PC party. The U.S. Democrats, in their leaderless ideological and policy incoherence, have been unable to rally around one story. The Ford PCs, on the other hand, have managed to maintain a strong electoral base despite poor ratings on most issues, according to an Angus Reid poll from September 16th, 2025.

The challenge for Stiles is being able to articulate the One Big Story. Crombie, a previous potential competitor, offered few ideological reasons to prefer her over Doug Ford, had high negatives that the PCs could drive higher, and the Liberals' vote inefficiency. The Ford PCs had the advantage of being able to pick their preferred competitor, but this advantage is now gone.

As Stiles embarks on her new journey, she faces a complex political landscape. However, with a clear and compelling narrative, she may be able to break through Ford's media dominance and redefine the Ontario political narrative. Only time will tell if she can seize this opportunity and lead Ontario in a new direction.

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