Marit capitalizes on Bonnie's breakdown, but taking down Doug requires strict determination.
In the political landscape of Ontario, the narrative is shifting as the major parties grapple with public opinion and strategic positioning.
The Angus Reid poll from September 16th, 2025, paints a mixed picture. Large majorities of Ontarians give poor marks to the Doug Ford-led Progressive Conservatives (PCs), yet 45% of those surveyed say they would still vote PC in the next election. This group, who rate the PCs poorly yet support them electorally, is a key to Doug Ford's continuation as Ontario premier.
Ford's leadership style, characterised by frequent media appearances and opinionated commentary, has kept him at the forefront of news headlines. However, his response to Prime Minister Carney's request for nation-building projects was poor and offensive, and his lack of a plan to revive the manufacturing sector is heavily criticised. Moreover, his recent comments blaming unemployed workers for their unemployment have not gone unnoticed.
The strategy of flooding the media zone with comments and distractions, as used by Ford, is being debated both in Ontario and the United States. California Governor Gavin Newsom has used trolling as a counter-tactic with some success. However, the challenge remains finding the One Big Story that can unite against Ford.
Until recently, the Ford PCs had the advantage of being able to pick their preferred competitor. However, the Liberal Party's disarray, led by the previous leader Crombie who offered few ideological reasons to prefer her over Ford and had high negatives, has redefined the strategic conditions in Ontario.
The Ontario NDP, led by Marit Stiles, now has the central challenge of unraveling this mystery. Stiles' low voter awareness is a symptom, and she now has a second chance to tackle the root problem, which is Ford's media dominance. Andrea Horwath, the former leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP), has taken on the main role in breaking Ford's media dominance after the collapse of the Ontario Liberals.
The U.S. Democrats, in their leaderless ideological and policy incoherence, have been unable to rally around one story. This ideological vacuum has allowed Ford to dominate the news cycle. Angus Reid's data indicates that a good relationship between the province and Ottawa is one pillar of strength for the Ford PCs. Pivoting from distractions to the big story could put Ford on the defensive and create policy contrast opportunities.
Framing Ontario politics as a choice between Ford and Crombie helps explain why only 27% believe Ontario is on the right track but 45% would vote for the PC party. The group who rate the PCs poorly yet support them electorally is a key to Doug Ford's continuation as Ontario premier.
The Ontario NDP, tasked with beating Ford's communications strategy on September 16th, 2025, faces a formidable challenge. However, with Stiles now in the role of main protagonist against Doug Ford, there is hope for a change in the political narrative. The question remains: will the Ontario NDP be able to find the One Big Story that can unite against Ford and redefine the political landscape of Ontario?
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