Mamdani maintains a significant lead over Cuomo by 19 points, while Stefanik is narrowing the gap between herself and Hochul.
In the latest Siena College poll, Gov. Kathy Hochul maintains a lead over Rep. Elise Stefanik in a hypothetical gubernatorial race, but the gap has significantly narrowed since July.
Hochul's Lead Shrinks
Hochul's lead over Stefanik has decreased from 23 points in early July to 14 points in early August. This indicates that Stefanik is closing the gap, although she still trails notably.
Approval Ratings and Familiarity
Hochul's job approval has improved slightly, with 53% approval versus 42% disapproval, her best rating since March 2023. Stefanik's favorability remains low, with 27% favorable and 32% unfavorable, while a large portion (41%) of voters are unfamiliar with her. However, Stefanik has gained name recognition, with about 59% of voters now having some opinion of her compared to past polls showing less than 30% familiarity.
Voter Breakdown
Hochul maintains strong support among Democrats and New York City residents, while Stefanik does better among Republicans and upstate voters. Independents are split, leaning toward Stefanik in the latest poll versus favoring Hochul previously.
Election Context
The race is hypothetical since Stefanik has not formally announced her candidacy, but she is expected to decide post-November elections. Pollsters caution that the political landscape remains fluid, and a two-to-one Democratic enrollment advantage historically exists in New York.
Other Key Findings
- Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani continues to lead the pack among New York City mayoral candidates.
- Mamdani leads Cuomo among Democratic voters in the poll.
- Mamdani holds a commanding 19 percentage point lead among registered voters in the first Siena College poll for the New York City mayor general election.
- Among independents who had an opinion, they were effectively split on the question of whether Stefanik has the experience to be governor.
- A majority (49%) of voters surveyed believe that Stefanik becoming governor would be bad for New York.
- The poll was conducted among registered voters in New York, with New York City voters making up only a portion of the overall pool surveyed.
In conclusion, while Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Rep. Elise Stefanik in the hypothetical gubernatorial race, Stefanik has made notable progress in closing the gap since July. The political landscape in New York remains fluid, and the race will likely be closely watched as the election approaches.
Republicans interpret the narrowed gap between Hochul and Stefanik as a sign that policy-and-legislation positions, particularly those aligned with general-news headlines, are gaining more weight in voter opinions, leading to an increased spine for Stefanik.
On the other hand, Hochul's success is partly attributed to her strong support among Democrats and New York City residents, underscoring the crucial role of party affiliations and local demographics in politics.
