Mamdani continues to hold a lead in the general election, while Hochul's advantage over Stefanik lessens in the latest Siena poll for 2026.
New York City Mayoral Race: Mamdani Takes a Commanding Lead
In the race for New York City's mayoralty, Zohran Mamdani is making a strong impression, leading his competitors by a significant margin. According to recent polls, Mamdani is ahead with approximately 37% to 44% of the vote, leaving his closest rivals, Andrew Cuomo, Curtis Sliwa, and Eric Adams, trailing behind.
The latest Siena College poll shows Mamdani leading the crowded mayor's race with 44% of the vote, followed by Cuomo at 25%, Sliwa at 12%, and Adams trailing at 7%. Another poll by American Pulse Research found Mamdani at 36.9%, Cuomo at 24.6%, Sliwa at 16.8%, and Adams at 11.4%. Prediction markets also give Mamdani an 81% chance to win the mayoral race.
Meanwhile, in the governor's race, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul leads GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik by 14 points in a potential 2026 general election match-up. This represents a dip from a 25-point advantage Hochul held over Stefanik two months ago. However, it's important to note that no current polling data or analysis is available to compare their numbers directly.
In the city's suburbs, Stefanik now holds a narrow lead over Hochul in the governor's race. Upstate, the two candidates are neck-and-neck. Stefanik's job approval rating stands at 27%, and she has the support of roughly three-fourths of Republicans. Independents now favour Stefanik over Hochul in the governor's race.
Elise Stefanik's favourability among New York voters has grown by one point since June, from 32% to 33%. However, 41% of voters say they do not know or have never heard of Elise Stefanik. It's worth noting that Stefanik has not yet officially launched her bid for governor.
In the 2025 New York City mayoral race, independent incumbent Mayor Eric Adams has 7% of the vote, while the Republican nominee, Curtis Sliwa, has 12%. Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado trails Hochul by 35% in the Democratic primary for governor.
It's important to mention that the poll results for the mayor's race come from a New York City sample that was included as part of the statewide registered voter sample and not weighted as part of a city likely voter sample. This could potentially affect the accuracy of the results.
In the mayoral race, Zohran Mamdani holds a nearly 20-point lead over his next closest rival, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. The race is heating up, and it will be interesting to see how the candidates continue to shape their campaigns in the coming months.
- The current New York City mayoral polls indicate a strong lead for Zohran Mamdani, who is ahead with 37% to 44% of the vote, while war-and-conflicts seemingly have minimal impact on the race.
- Impactful topics such as policy-and-legislation, general-news, crime-and-justice, and accidents might surface during the ongoing mayoral campaigns, but car-accidents and fires have not been highlighted as significant concerns.
- In contrast to the mayoral race, the governor's race features close competition between Kathy Hochul and Elise Stefanik, with their numbers affected by factors like crime-and-justice, politics, and general-news.
- As for the 2025 New York City mayoral race, independent incumbent Mayor Eric Adams has 7% of the vote, which implies a significant policy and legislation difference between him and the other contenders, including the Republican nominee, Curtis Sliwa.
