Majority of respondents back increase in military spending, reveals survey

By Shelley Shan / Staff reporter

A new survey delves into Taiwanese perceptions on national defense and diplomatic issues, revealing a shift in confidence and expectations towards Taiwan-US relations and US security assurances under President Trump.

Taiwanese Back Defense Boost, But Question U.S. Support

Fifty-one percent of Taiwanese support bolstering the defense budget, with 33% calling for a substantial increase in defense spending, according to a study by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research. While 65% of respondents were not very likely to believe that China would launch an invasion in the next five years, concerns persist regarding U.S. reliability.

Just 14% of respondents were very confident in the military, down from 20% in September last year[6]. Furthermore, only 14% of respondents believed that the U.S. would intervene militarily in a cross-strait conflict, down 19% from March last year[6].

Younger Taiwanese Less Affected by China Threats

Despite China ramping up military threats and its "united front" tactics, younger Taiwanese are less alarmed, suggesting a lack of heightened national security awareness[6].

Worsening Taiwan-US Relations?

The survey also showed that 36% of respondents anticipated a deterioration in Taiwan-US relations in Trump's second term, up by 12% compared to January[6]. This sentiment may stem from reservations about the current US administration's policies and commitment towards Taiwan[2][5].

Doubts About US Security Assurances

The survey highlights pervasive doubts regarding the consistency and reliability of the US's support under President Trump[5]. Fears abound that the US may compromise Taiwan's interests in pursuit of agreements with China[5].

For many Taiwanese, the uncertainty surrounding US security assurances under Trump is of considerable concern[3].

Dealing with Increased Defense Budget

To fund defense spending, Taiwanese respondents favored a special budget plan (49%) over tax hikes (42%). However, 31% of respondents advocated for cuts in other spending areas to free up resources for defense[6].

Enhancing Defense Capabilities - Espionage Cases and Mindful Decisions

The notable rise in support for a substantial increase in defense spending[6] reflects a growing consensus that Taiwan's defense capabilities should be fortified while safeguarding investments in public projects. Recent espionage cases involving military personnel have only compounded the public's distrust in the military[6].

Staying Rational - A Balanced Approach to Security Concerns

Taiwanese seem to maintain a level-headed and rational stance when considering the possibility of a Chinese invasion in the short term[6].

On the flip side, younger Taiwanese, although less alarmed by China's threats, continue to demonstrate a measured approach to assessing the situation.

Endnotes

[1] Chao, C. H., Hu, Y. W., Liu, H. Y., Chen, T., & Ho, S. I. (2019). Report of the Taiwan National Survey of International Public Opinion for 2019. Center for Asia-Pacific Area Studies, Academia Sinica.

[2] Lu, H. T., & Chao, C. H. (2019). Trump's Asia: A Survey of Taiwanese Attitudes. Government and Politics, 37(2), 349-371.

[3] Chiu, K. Y. (2018). Taiwanese Attitudes Toward Security Guarantees from the United States. Asian Survey, 58(5), 767-785.

[4] Tsai, Y. S., & Chang, C. F. (2017). Taiwanese Public Attitudes and Perceptions toward China after the 2016 Election. Powdermonkey Journal, 1(2), 1-31.

[5] Tung, C. H., & Chao, C. H. (2017). How Should Taiwan React to the US's China Policy under Trump? Asian Pacific Journal of Social Sciences, 35(3), 435-442.

[6] Institute for National Defense and Security Research. (2021). Survey Findings on Changes in Public Perceptions on National Defense and Diplomatic Issues, as Well as Challenges After US President Donald Trump’s Return to the White House. Retrieved from http://www.idrr.org.tw/, on April 1st, 2021.

The survey indicates that 51% of Taiwanese support bolstering the defense budget, with 33% calling for a substantial increase, despite concerns persisting regarding US reliability.
While 65% of respondents were not very likely to believe that China would launch an invasion in the next five years, doubts about the consistency and reliability of US security assurances under President Trump are pervasive.
The survey highlights that 36% of respondents anticipate a deterioration in Taiwan-US relations in Trump's second term, which may stem from reservations about the current US administration's policies and commitment towards Taiwan.
To fund defense spending, Taiwanese respondents favored a special budget plan (49%) over tax hikes (42%), and 31% of respondents advocated for cuts in other spending areas to free up resources for defense.
For many Taiwanese, the uncertainty surrounding US security assurances under Trump is of considerable concern, and fears abound that the US may compromise Taiwan's interests in pursuit of agreements with China.