Majority anticipate AfD leaders to become prime ministers in 2026, according to recent surveys
Germany is gearing up for several state elections next year, including Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony-Anhalt, Baden-Württemberg, Berlin, and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Here's a look at the current political landscape and the expected outcomes for these elections, focusing on the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
State Elections Overview
- Rhineland-Palatinate: The state election is scheduled for March 22, 2026. The SPD, led by Alexander Schweitzer, aims to continue its coalition with the Greens and FDP, despite trailing behind the CDU in polls. The AfD's performance in Rhineland-Palatinate is not expected to be a major factor in this election, with the party's support typically lower compared to other parts of Germany [3].
- Saxony-Anhalt: The election is scheduled for September 6, 2026. In the 2021 election, the CDU led with 37.1% of the vote, while the AfD secured 20.8%. The AfD has historically performed well in Saxony-Anhalt and is expected to maintain a significant presence in the state's politics [2].
- Baden-Württemberg: While specific details about the AfD's prospects in Baden-Württemberg's 2026 election are limited, the party generally performs weaker in this more conservative but traditionally CDU-aligned state.
- Berlin: The Berlin election is not yet confirmed for 2026, but if it occurs, the AfD is expected to face challenges due to its relatively low support in the city.
- Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: Similar to Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD tends to perform better in this region. The party's support is higher in eastern Germany, making it a notable contender in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
Expected Outcomes for the AfD
- Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: The AfD is likely to maintain a strong presence in both states, given its historical performance in these regions.
- Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg: The AfD might face challenges in these states, as they tend to have lower support for the party compared to eastern Germany.
- Berlin: The AfD's prospects in Berlin are generally less favorable due to the city's political landscape favoring other parties.
General Trends
- The AfD tends to perform better in eastern German states, where it often secures a significant portion of the vote.
- The party's national influence is generally weaker compared to other major parties like the CDU/CSU and SPD. However, it remains a key player in regional politics, particularly in areas with strong populist sentiments.
Conclusion
The AfD is expected to maintain its presence in German state elections, particularly in eastern regions like Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. However, its prospects are generally less favorable in western states like Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg. The party's performance will depend on regional political dynamics and voter sentiments.
According to a survey by Insa for "Bild am Sonntag", more than half of the population expect the AfD to have at least one minister president in one state after the state elections next year. The survey also indicates that the AfD remains close behind with 25%, while the SPD remains at 15%, the Greens at 11%, the Left at 9%, the FDP at 4%, and the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) at 4%.
It is important to note that the CDU rejects any form of cooperation with the AfD and the Left, according to a resolution passed in 2018 [1]. Without a coalition partner, it would be difficult for the AfD to enter a state government. The polling institute conducts the Sunday trend every week for "Bild am Sonntag" [4].
References: 1. CDU rejects cooperation with AfD and Left 2. 2021 Saxony-Anhalt election results 3. Rhineland-Palatinate state election 2026 4. Sunday Trend
- The General-News survey suggests that more than half of the population anticipate the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party to have at least one minister president in a state following the upcoming state elections, indicating the party's potential influence in German politics.
- Despite the CDU's rejection of any cooperation with the AfD and the Left, as per a resolution passed in 2018, the polls indicate that the AfD remains close behind other major parties, raising questions about potential regional alliances and the possibility of AfD participation in state governments.
