Madrid Open Predictions: Top Tennis Bets and Picks on Friday, 2nd May
Twitter, Facebook, Email## Let's Discuss the Mutua Madrid Open on May 2nd!
The top dogs of tennis are gracing the Caja Magica for a couple more days in the 2025 Mutua Madrid Open! If you're looking to bet on some tennis action, VSiN's got you covered. Don't forget to drop by our picks page for all the insider tips on smaller tournaments and Challengers.
As we move into the climax of the tennis season, there are a plethora of 1000-level events coming up. From these, it's just a hop, skip, and a jump to the majors, so things are gonna heat up pretty quickly. We'll be covering it all, with my daily columns and Gill Alexander's brilliant A Numbers Game work. If you love tennis, now's the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription!
With that said, let's get to my Mutua Madrid Open predictions for May 2nd!
MORE: Dive into our Pro Picks page to catch all our experts' bets!
Francisco Cerundolo vs. Casper Ruud
Cerundolo's been having a hell of a season, tying for the most tour wins in 2025. After a tough comeback against Jakub Mensik, he's reached his second Masters semifinal. Ruud, on the other hand, has been finding his game over the last few weeks but isn't playing up to his usual clay standards. He's struggled on hard courts this year too. Cerundolo's recent form is clearly in the lead here, and the head-to-head history favors him too - Cerundolo leads 5-3 in 8 matches, with 2 clay-court victories. They also faced off in Miami, where Cerundolo won in straight sets, so that memory might still be fresh in their minds.
Cerundolo's at the peak of his game now, cutting down on errors, improving his serve, and being one of the most dangerous players off the forehand wing. While Ruud has some advantages with his serve and tactics, Cerundolo's consistency and all-court game have closed the gap. Both are natural clay-court players, but Cerundolo's current edge and momentum make him a strong contender for his first Masters final.
I'm especially interested in the backhand-to-backhand exchanges here. Ruud's made improvements with that shot throughout his career, but Cerundolo's been playing better than Ruud lately. This might be hard for Ruud to overcome as their forehands seem evenly matched.
Pick: Cerundolo ML (+110)
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Jack Draper
The price on Draper's win seems a bit too high, so I'm taking the Brit to cover a 2.5-game spread. There's no lack of respect for Musetti - I believe he has the potential to win a major or two one day. But in his win over Gabriel Diallo last round, Musetti looked off. He was wearing an arm sleeve during that match, and he seemed to lack his explosiveness, both as a ball-striker and a mover. Perhaps the fatigue is starting to get to him, as he's been playing a lot of tennis recently.
Realistically, Draper's played incredibly well this season. In fact, before Madrid, he was second on the ATP Tour in Elo rating. He hasn't done anything this tournament that warranted a drop. If anything, he might leap Carlos Alcaraz. Heading into the quarterfinals, Draper had Musetti beat in serve quality, return quality, backhand quality, and forehand quality on TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations. But Musetti has an edge on the forehand wing. Might that be enough for the Italian to keep it close?
Draper has dominated this head-to-head series, with a perfect 3-0 record in their three career tour-level meetings. Musetti hasn't won a set in their last two encounters, and if there's a clay-court event that would favor Draper in this matchup, it's this one. With his big serve, the altitude makes him tougher to beat.
Pick: Draper -2.5 Games (-114)
Extra Plays
You'll find a plethora of additional plays on our Pro Picks page. They count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out, as I'll probably add a few more throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will exist exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
Tennis Links
- VSiN Tennis Betting Splits
- Tennis Odds
- Gill Alexander's Beating The Book Podcast
Did you know...?
VSiN Pro is a subscription service offered by Vegas Sports & Information Network (VSiN). Although VSiN doesn't primarily focus on tennis content, it provides valuable general sports insights and expert analysis that can potentially be helpful for betting on various sports. If you're a tennis fan, you might find more targeted and specialized platforms or services offering specific tennis analysis and insights to be more beneficial during the Mutua Madrid Open.
- The Mutua Madrid Open on VSiN's Pro Picks page offers insights into smaller tournaments and Challengers, along with their expert tips for betting on tennis action.
- The climax of the tennis season is approaching with numerous 1000-level events, providing promising opportunities for acclaimed tennis action, including the majors.
- Innovations in the sports world have grown exponentially, and VSiN's Pro subscription offers an opportunity for fans to stay updated on various sports, including tennis, with daily columns and in-depth analysis like Gill Alexander's A Numbers Game work.
- On the calendar, the May 2nd match between Francisco Cerundolo and Jack Draper is a must-watch, with Cerundolo at the top of his game and posing a strong contender for his first Masters final.
