Lula Emerges Victorious in the 2022 Elections contrary to Opponents; Environmental Concerns at Risk
In a series of polls released recently, the 2026 Brazilian presidential elections are showing a competitive landscape, with former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading in some simulations.
On the 17th, Congress passed a bill for environmental licensing flexibilization, a move that has sparked concern from Environment Minister Marina Silva, who believes it weakens Brazil's environmental legislation. The bill's passage coincided with the release of the Genial/Quaest Poll for the 2026 elections, which showed Lula leading in second-round simulations.
According to the poll, Lula and São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicanos) are in a technical tie, with 41% and 37% support respectively. Jair Bolsonaro, another competitor in the elections, is the closest challenger to Lula, trailing by 4%.
In a potential second-round matchup, Lula leads Bolsonaro by 6 percentage points, 43% to 37%. Lula also leads Tarcisio de Freitas by the same margin in the same scenario.
Lula's approval rating has risen to 43%, with his disapproval dropping to 53%, indicating some political momentum for him ahead of the elections. In another recent poll, Lula leads all electoral scenarios, with high support levels.
However, in a first-round hypothetical scenario, Lula trails behind Bolsonaro in a poll by Instituto Gerp, with Lula receiving 26% of the votes and Bolsonaro receiving 42%. Against Michelle Bolsonaro, Lula would get 25% compared to 29% for Michelle.
It's important to note that neither Lula nor Bolsonaro have publicly endorsed the bill for environmental licensing flexibilization in the context of the 2026 elections.
The political climate is influenced by recent interactions between President Lula and the U.S., which have shifted public opinion in Lula's favor domestically. The 2026 elections are being simulated by the Genial/Quaest Poll, with more results expected in the coming months.
[1] Source: Instituto Gerp Poll (https://www.institutogerp.com.br/noticias/lula-fica-em-terceiro-lugar-na-primeira-rodada-das-eleicoes-de-2026-segundo-pesquisa-do-instituto-gerp/) [2] Source: Genial/Quaest Poll (https://www.g1.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2023/03/17/lula-e-tarcisio-de-freitas-empatam-no-primeiro-lugar-na-pesquisa-de-intencao-de-voto-do-genial-quaest-para-as-eleicoes-de-2026.ghtml) [3] Source: Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lula-returns-center-stage-brazil-politics-after-us-visit-2023-03-17/) [4] Source: Folha de S.Paulo (https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/cotidiano/2023/03/lula-na-lead-nas-simulacoes-de-eleicoes-de-2026.shtml) [5] Source: Ibope Poll (https://www.ibope.com.br/noticias/lula-lidera-todas-simulacoes-das-eleicoes-de-2026/)
- The Genial/Quaest Poll, one of the simulations for the 2026 Brazilian presidential elections, shows that former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is leading in some scenarios, with high support levels, indicating a potential shift in environmental-science-related policy-and-legislation due to his policies.
- In contrast, the Instituto Gerp Poll reveals that Lula trails in the first round of the 2026 elections, hinting at a possibility of close competition in the political landscape, with climate-change policies potentially playing a significant role.
- Despite the recent flexibilization of environmental licensing, neither Lula nor any of his competitors have publicly endorsed the move, raising questions about the impact of politics on environmental protections and general-news coverage in the lead-up to the elections.
