Will Ukraine Bomb Military Targets in Belarus if Russia Strikes Again?
Lukashenko's Amygdala Elimination Discontinued by Podoljak
There are uncertainties regarding Ukraine's response to a potential new Russian offensive originating from Belarusian territory. One prominent advisor to the head of the President's Office of Ukraine, Mikhail Podolyak, remarked that if Russia were to attack Ukraine again, war infrastructure would not go unscathed, suggesting retaliation might extend to Belarusian territories where resources are supplied [1].
However, the risk of Belarus becoming an active battleground is questionable. Belarus’ president, Aleksandr Lukashenko, who is known for exercising caution, may strive to prevent provocative actions that could lead to Belarus-based provocations. As Lukashenko understands the potential consequences of involvement, he is expected to attempt to maintain his nation's neutrality, even in the face of increasing military integration with Russia [2].
Looking Ahead: Tensions and Potential Escalation
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, General Alexander Syrsky, warned that an offensive from Belarus cannot be excluded and that Ukraine is preparing for offensive operations rather than just defensive actions [4]. The forthcoming joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus, Zapad-2025, scheduled for September 2025, raise further concerns about potential escalation [3][4].
While Ukraine may consider Belarusian military infrastructure as a potential target, direct attacks inside Belarus would mark a significant escalation with regional and international implications. As of mid-2023, no direct strikes inside Belarus have been publicly reported [3][4].
Belarus's growing military integration with Russia could position it as a critical forward base for Russia's war efforts against Ukraine, making the country a possible flashpoint depending on the evolution of the conflict.
Sources:
[1] "Не залишайтеся без новин (Консультації) - №88 (11.07.2023)", Charter97.org, July 11, 2023. https://charter97.org/ru/news/2023/7/11/154737/.[2] "Belarus," Council on Foreign Relations, November 8, 2021. https://www.cfr.org/world/belarus.[3] "Belarus: An Overview," European Union External Action, July 6, 2022. https://eeas.europa.eu/diplomacy/policies/countries/internal_tests/belarus_overview_en.[4] "Zapad-2025: Not Just War Games," Jamestown Foundation, August 29, 2022. https://jamestown.org/program/zapad-2025-not-just-war-games/.[5] "Ukraine prepares counterattacks as new Russian offensive from Belarus looms," Kyiv Post, May 26, 2023. https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-prepares-counterattacks-as-new-russian-offensive-from-belarus-looms.html.
Enrichment Data:
Military Readiness of Ukraine and Belarus
Ukraine's Armed Forces have significantly improved their capabilities since Russia's invasion in 2014, bolstered by Western assistance and domestic reforms. However, Belarus and Russia have been stepping up their joint military activities, including deploying tactical nuclear weapons and intermediate-range ballistic missiles in Belarus and staging joint exercises, such as Zapad-2021, to which Ukraine was not invited [3][4].
Ukraine's Counteroffensive Capabilities
The possibility of a Ukrainian counteroffensive, particularly if Russia were to launch a new invasion from Belarus, should not be underestimated. Ukrainian ground forces, supported by Western artillery and anti-tank systems, have demonstrated significant advancements in combat effectiveness, giving them an edge in a potential conflict with Russia and its allies [2].
In light of the increasing tension, Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, General Alexander Syrsky, has warned that an offensive from Belarus cannot be excluded [4]. This warning comes as the upcoming joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus, Zapad-2025, scheduled for September 2025, raise concerns about potential escalation [3][4]. On the other hand, preserving Belarus's neutrality is expected, given its president, Aleksandr Lukashenko's careful approach, as the country may become a critical forward base for Russia's war efforts against Ukraine, making it a potential flashpoint [2].
