Loss of Majority for GroKo Results in Setback for the Left, Greens Gain Ground
As the German political landscape evolves, new polling data reveals significant changes in the support for major parties. The latest figures, as of early August 2025, show a tight race among the leading parties, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) making notable gains.
According to various polling institutions, the AfD currently enjoys the support of approximately 24% of voters, a marked increase of +4.2% compared to the last election, as reported by INSA, and +3.2% according to Infratest dimap.
On the other hand, the Union (CDU/CSU) is facing a decline in voter favourability, with a drop of about -1.5% compared to the last election, as per INSA, and stagnation according to other polls. The Social Democrats (SPD) are also losing ground, with a drop of -3.4% reported by Infratest dimap, indicating a downward momentum.
The Greens and the Left party, however, are maintaining relatively stable support around 10-12% and 10% respectively. The BSW, Sahra Wagenknecht’s party, holds a small but notable presence, with ratings higher by INSA than many others, but exact trends less clearly established. The FDP appears to be falling below the 5% threshold necessary for parliamentary representation, signifying a significant decline.
These shifts reflect growing right-wing support and challenges for the current centre-right/centre-left coalition government led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Public sentiment shows dissatisfaction with Merz's leadership and concerns about Germany’s economic future, which may contribute to these trends.
Among potentially reachable voters, the BSW gains one percentage point, while the SPD, AfD, and Left Party each increase the share of exclusionary voters by two percentage points each. The Greens maintain the same support among certain voters, and the Union gains one percentage point among certain voters. The FDP, however, maintains the same support among certain voters.
The current government coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD holds about 46-48% of seats virtually, indicating they risk losing their majority. These shifts in voter sentiment could have significant implications for the upcoming elections.
[1] INSA Poll (Aug 1) [2] Infratest dimap Poll (Aug 6) [3] Forsa Poll (July 29 - Aug 4) [4] Not explicitly given in the provided polls but noted in the article [5] Declining below 5% threshold is an inference based on the data provided in the polls
- The latest policy-and-legislation updates reveal a tight race among Germany's leading parties, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) making significant advancements and gaining the support of approximately 24% of voters, as reported by INSA and Infratest dimap.
- The upcoming German elections could bring substantial changes to the political landscape, especially as the SPD, AfD, and Left Party each increase the share of exclusionary voters by two percentage points each, while the current government coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD risk losing their majority and hold about 46-48% of seats virtually.
