Liverpool continues to face pressure, according to Slot, following their loss in the Community Shield.
Liverpool's Community Shield Loss: A Historical Perspective
Liverpool's summer spending is approaching £300m, but their defensive lapses proved to be their downfall in the Community Shield. The Reds lost to Crystal Palace in a penalty shootout, marking the third consecutive Community Shield where the side that conceded first has won, and all three winners have clinched victory via penalties.
Historically, winning the Community Shield has been a poor predictor of winning the subsequent Premier League title. According to comprehensive statistics, only one of the last 14 Community Shield winners went on to win the Premier League in the same season. In contrast, teams that lost the Community Shield have had better success in winning the Premier League, including four of the last six losing teams who secured the league title that season, such as Liverpool in the 2019-20 season.
This trend suggests a negative or inverse relationship between Community Shield victory and Premier League success in the same season. Manchester City provides a notable example: they lost the Community Shield in several seasons but went on to win the Premier League, while their 2024 Community Shield win did not lead to a league title.
Regarding the Community Shield itself, historically successful teams like Manchester United (21 wins), Liverpool (16 wins), and Manchester City (7 wins) have frequently appeared and won this curtain-raiser. However, this does not guarantee subsequent league triumphs. Crystal Palace won their first-ever Community Shield in 2025, beating Liverpool on penalties, but they have never been Premier League champions, showing that winning the Shield doesn't necessarily correlate with league performance.
Liverpool's attacking play looked better than last season's match against Crystal Palace, with Florian Wirtz creating the most chances in the game for Liverpool. However, Liverpool conceded two goals, both due to uncharacteristic errors by captain Virgil van Dijk. Hugo Ekitike scored on his competitive debut for Liverpool in the Community Shield, making it the earliest goal in a Community Shield since 2001.
Arne Slot, Liverpool's manager, stated that "the pressure is always on" at Liverpool, regardless of the number of players brought in or not brought in. He also emphasised the need to improve defensively to compete for the Premier League title. Liverpool are reportedly exploring moves for Alexander Isak and Marc Guehi to strengthen their squad.
According to the Opta supercomputer, Liverpool are tipped to retain their Premier League crown, winning the title in 28.2% of the season simulations. However, the team will need to address their defensive issues to ensure a successful title defence.
References:
- Community Shield winners and subsequent Premier League success
- Historical Community Shield winners and their league success
- Crystal Palace's Community Shield win and Premier League aspirations
- Liverpool's 2024-25 Premier League win despite Community Shield loss
- Community Shield: A historical overview
In spite of Liverpool's substantial investment in sports, particularly football, their defensive errors were detrimental in the Community Shield, leading to a loss against Crystal Palace. Despite the Community Shield win often being seen as a predictor for the Premier League title, teams that have lost the Community Shield, such as Liverpool in the 2019-20 season, have gone on to win the league in the same year.
