Downsized Zapad-2025 Military Drills: A New Frontier for Tensions
Lithuanian official declares that NATO perceives no danger from Zapad military exercises.
In a recent interview, an advisor to the Lithuanian president declared that NATO doesn't foresee the upcoming Russia-Belarus Zapad military exercises as a looming threat.
"NATO doesn't detect any indications suggesting that this year's Zapad will be a huge-scale operation threatening our security," Deividas Matulionis shared with ZŘ^{1} radio station.
Scheduled for September, this year's Zapad drills will unfold in regions bordering the Baltic states and Poland. Previously, these exercises mimicked a war against NATO and summoned tens of thousands of troops [2]. Before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Zapad drills enacted war scenarios involving NATO troops.
According to Matulionis, data indicates that these war games will maintain a limited scale. During the exercises, NATO allies will display their determination to "maintain the deterrence and defense of our territory," the president's advisor said.
"There's no need to sensationalize the situation, as it's under constant surveillance," Matulionis voiced.
The new incumbent in the post of chief advisor on national security to President Gitanas Nause, Matulionis formerly served as Lithuania's ambassador to NATO.
Zapad-2025: Regionwide Strategic Military Exercises
Overview of Zapad-2025
- Participating Forces: Initial reports indicated that Zapad-2025 might incorporate up to 150,000 troops [1]. However, Belarus has substantially diminished the exercises, relocating them inland and trimming the number of troops participating to approximately 13,000 soldiers[2][5].
- Objective: The Zapad exercises are a part of a biennial series of joint military drills between Russia and Belarus. While the troop count has decreased, they still serve as a demonstration of military preparedness and strategy[2][3].
NATO's Cautious Approach and Lithuanian Outlook
- NATO's Wariness: NATO has traditionally been watchful regarding these exercises due to their proximity to NATO borders and the potential for hostilities to escalate. The reduction in troops and relocation of Zapad-2025 suggest an attempt by Belarus to settle disputes with NATO [2][4].
- Lithuanian Analysis: Lithuanian officials view the limited dimension of the drills as a welcoming development but remain alert. They acknowledge that the size of the exercises will not outreach that of 2021, and the state of affairs in Ukraine impedes Russia and Belarus from executing larger-scale operations[5].
Assessing the Threat Level
- Historical Precedence: Previous Zapad exercises have triggered concern due to their strategic nature and proximity to NATO borders. Before the invasion of Ukraine, major exercises near a border raised anxiety about potential armed conflicts[3].
- Present Assessment: While the reduction in troops and relocation of Zapad-2025 are viewed as de-escalatory measures, they don't entirely dispel underlying tensions. These strategic war games still represent a significant military display in the vicinity of NATO territories, even though they are no longer as large-scale as initially anticipated[2][4].
In essence, while NATO and Lithuanian officials express a degree of relief about the reduced troop count for Zapad-2025, they remain vigilant in the face of the drills' strategic implications and historical precedent.
^{1}ZREENEWS^{2}Agence France-Presse^{3}NBC News^{4}Bloomberg^{5}RFE/RL
"While the Lithuanian government views the limited scale of Zapad-2025 as a positive development in terms of regional tensions and politics, the general news media continues to monitor the exercises due to their strategic implications and historical precedent."
"Amidst downsized Zapad-2025 military drills, the focus of international politics, war-and-conflicts coverage, and general news reporting remains on the associated tensions, the motivations behind the exercises, and their potential impact on the broader region."
