Leopards into the Action: Assessing the Impact of German Tanks on Battlefield Equilibrium in Ukraine
In a significant development, Germany has approved the delivery of Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine, marking a significant boost to Ukraine's armored capabilities. This decision, made in early 2023, comes alongside other nations providing their Leopard 2s and Western tanks such as British Challenger 2s and US Abrams tanks [2].
Despite these qualitative improvements, the military balance on the battlefield remains contested. Heavy fighting and localized territorial gains characterize the current situation, three and a half years into the war [1][2][3][4]. Ukraine has shown resilience, resisting Russian advances despite limitations, but large territorial shifts have been slow and incremental [1][3].
Ukraine continues to liberate some settlements, but Russia still holds about 20% of Ukrainian territory [1][3]. The conflict remains attritional, with heavy casualties on both sides and extensive use of drones and missiles. Ukrainian strikes against Russian military and oil infrastructure inside Russia continue [3][5].
The arrival of Leopard 2 tanks has strengthened Ukraine's armored warfare potential, but their impact on the overall battlefield balance has not been drastic. The delivery of the bulk of the Leopards and US-supplied Abrams tanks could be from spring into the summer [6].
Integrating the supply of parts and ammunition unique to these foreign-made vehicles will be a challenge. The methods of employment of the new tanks, such as whether they will be used for attack or defense, will play an influential role in determining their contribution to the fight [8].
Germany has planned to train Ukrainian crews for its Leopard 2 tanks in Germany [9]. Logistics, however, present another challenge. Getting the tanks to Ukraine is one thing, but keeping a flow of parts and ammunition to the battlefield is another [10].
Ukraine, with the logistical advantages of fighting on its own territory, has shown the flexibility necessary to maintain the flow of materiel along its interior lines of communication [11]. Russia, on the other hand, has struggled with its own logistics problems, showcasing the detrimental effects these challenges can have on an overall war effort [12].
The UK aims to provide its Challenger 2 tanks by the end of March, but many of these tanks have reportedly been destroyed or damaged in combat [4]. Thus, Ukraine's Western tank deployments are still a small but symbolically important portion of its overall armored forces [4].
The war's course so far provides evidence that Ukraine's disadvantage in numbers and the technological sophistication of its armored platforms can be offset by superior employment [13]. Among the tanks lost by Russia, 39% were T-72s, 64% were T-80s, and 11% were T-90s [14].
Turkey has agreed to allow Ukraine to coproduce TB2 Bayraktar drones, and both Poland and Lithuania have offered man-portable air defense systems to Ukraine [15]. The potential impact of the new tanks depends on their arrival in time for the anticipated spring offensives and on the training, maintenance, and logistics support provided by their supporters [16].
If these patterns continue even as Ukraine receives the highly capable Leopard 2 and other tanks, their introduction has the potential to measurably impact the balance on the battlefield [16]. The delivery timeline for the new tanks could be a major factor in their impact on the outcomes of spring offensives.
In the past, Germany was resistant to materially supporting Ukraine due to concerns about antagonizing Russia and antimilitarism [17]. However, this decision marks a significant shift in Germany's stance, demonstrating a growing international commitment to support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.
- The arrival of Leopard 2 tanks in Ukraine has bolstered its armored capabilities for urban warfare, but their full impact on the battlefield balance is yet to be seen.
- The delivery of Western tanks like Britain's Challenger 2s and US Abrams tanks continues, though their contribution remains a small but symbolically significant portion of Ukraine's overall armored forces.
- In light of the military support from European-leagues and other nations, Ukraine's leadership and military strategy have shown flexibility in maintaining materiel flow through its interior lines of communication.
- The potential impact of the new tanks, including the Leopard 2, hinges on their delivery in time for the anticipated spring offensives, as well as training, maintenance, and logistics support provided by their supporters.
- As the course of the war shows, the technological sophistication of armored platforms can be advantageous, even in the face of numerical disadvantages, provided they are used effectively.
- Amidst continuous territorial disputes and heavy casualties on both sides, modern warfare tactics, including the extensive use of drones and missiles in urban warfare, remain a critical factor in the overall war effort.
