Learnings of South Korea Embracing Nuclear Arms under the Leadership of Mr. Kim
In the evolving landscape of East Asian security, South Korea is reevaluating its defense strategies, driven by growing concerns over North Korea's nuclear threats and uncertainties about the reliability of U.S. security assurances.
The desire for personal recognition and a potential interest in North Korea's delivery systems that could reach the U.S., rather than its nuclear weapons threatening South Korea, might lead President Trump to engage in talks with North Korea. However, the persisting question of how North Korea behaves on other fronts, such as its continued deployment of troops to Russia, remains a concern.
South Korea's nominee for foreign minister, Cho Hyun, has indicated plans to amend the U.S.–ROK 123 nuclear cooperation agreement to allow nuclear propulsion technology for submarines. This move, while within the framework of peaceful cooperation, edges closer to military applications and marks a formal channel to expand South Korea’s military nuclear capabilities.
Former President Yoon Suk-yeol's 2023 comments acknowledged that South Korea might consider nuclear armament if North Korean threats escalate, though official policy remains compliance with the NPT for now. The debate continues to intensify due to an increasing asymmetry between North and South Korea’s nuclear capabilities and doubts over the consistency of U.S. support following Donald Trump’s 2024 election.
Japan, traditionally maintaining strong non-nuclear principles under its pacifist constitution and heavily relying on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, is expected to face increased debate about its own defense posture and the potential need for enhanced deterrence measures. However, Japan remains committed to its non-nuclear stance as of mid-2025.
South Korea is also advancing other aspects of its defense posture to reduce reliance on U.S. operational control. For example, upgrading command and control systems for combined Korea-U.S. military operations to support a potential wartime operational control transition from Washington to Seoul is part of a broader move toward increased military autonomy and regional stability management.
The need for more strategic independence from the U.S. remains an illusion for South Korea and Japan. Discussions in South Korea and Japan will likely continue in some form, with necessary alternatives including strengthening regional cooperation (such as between South Korea and Japan, and with Australia), and bolstering international order in collaboration with Europeans.
Previous talks during Trump's term failed due to U.S. demands for full denuclearization and expected resistance from Congress. The condition for talks is that the U.S. recognizes North Korea as a nuclear power. Kim Jong Un's sister has shown openness to talks with the U.S., offering a potential opportunity for dialogue.
North Korea's nuclear weapons could still threaten U.S. bases in the region. The waning sense of assured American security guarantees post-2024 U.S. elections has catalyzed a more serious and pragmatic South Korean reassessment of nuclear and conventional defense options. This carries broader implications for East Asian regional stability, as moves toward indigenous nuclear capabilities in South Korea could prompt strategic recalibrations by North Korea, Japan, and other regional actors.
- Amidst the ongoing negotiations and uncertainties in East Asia, the discussion about South Korea's defense policy-and-legislation, particularly the expansion of its military nuclear capabilities, is gaining momentum, fuelled by free debate about nuclear armament if North Korean threats escalate.
- The growing need for strategic independence from the U.S. in both South Korea and Japan has led to a focus on general-news topics like strengthening regional cooperation, such as between South Korea and Japan, and with Australia, and bolstering international order in collaboration with Europeans, in an effort to achieve enhanced security and stability in the region.
