Flames Burn Leafs as Favorites in Game 4 Showdown
Leafs and Panthers' Game 4 Previews, Projections, and Starting Netminders (May 11th)
Let's dive into the fiery clash between the Leafs and Flames in Game 4 of their second-round playoff series!
With John Gibson still sidelined, Anthony Stolarz will once again miss out for Toronto, making way for Joseph Woll in net. The Flames are fiercely making their mark as -192 moneyline favorites, with the Leafs coming back as +160 underdogs. The puck drops at 7:30 pm ET at Scotiabank Saddledome, with TBS and truTV providing the broadcast coverage.
Flames vs Leafs Game 4 Odds
With a whopping 68% of the wagers backing Toronto on the moneyline, I suggest thinking twice before jumping on the bandwagon. The Flames have the edge in this battle, with their dominance in even-strength play throughout the series so far.
Here's a quick look at the odds:
- Moneyline: Flames (-192), Leafs (+160)
- Puck line: Flames (+130), Leafs (-150)
- Total: 6.5
Flames vs Leafs Picks and Prediction
Don't miss out on my top pick: the Flames 60-min line at -125 odds. Their even-strength dominance has been evident, backed by superior puck possession, nearly double the expected goals, and a lower goal-scoring percentage indicating positive regression.
The Flames' Big Three - Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, and Matthew Tkachuk - have combined for just 2 points so far. But I'm betting they'll step up tonight, despite their combined 59 scoring chances. Meanwhile, the Leafs have struggled to capitalize on their chances against Calgary's net, with a 14% shooting percentage, slightly higher than their season average, and a 21% success rate on 5-on-5 high-danger chances.
Goalies' Stats:
- Jacob Markstrom (Flames): 2.05 GAA, .929 save percentage (postseason)[1]
- Jack Campbell (Leafs): 2.68 GAA, .896 save percentage (postseason)[1]
Key Insights
:Flames' Strength in Home Ice: The Flames have been hard to beat at home, tying for the second most wins in the West, with a +26 home goal differential during the regular season.
:Leafs' Powerplay Struggles: The Leafs' powerplay has struggled in their second-round series, converting just 1 out of 11 opportunities.
:Scoring Droughts: Top players like Auston Matthews have experienced scoring droughts, impacting team performance.[2]
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Be Sure to Check Out Our Comprehensive Flames vs Leafs Game 4 Predictions and Pick for In-depth Analysis!
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- Despite the Leafs being listed as +160 underdogs, with 68% of wagers backing Toronto on the moneyline, it might be wiser to reconsider backing the Leafs in Game 4.
- The Flames, currently -192 moneyline favorites, have demonstrated a dominant even-strength play throughout the series and may capitalize on this edge once more.
- Fans anticipating a high-scoring game between the Flames and Leafs might find the total set at 6.5 an interesting proposition, given each team's offensive and defensive capabilities.
- The Flames' Big Three - Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, and Matthew Tkachuk - have yet to make a significant impact in the series, but their potential to step up tonight adds excitement to an already combustible matchup.
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