Leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan aim to assuage worries from Russia and Iran following a U.S.-mediated peace accord
The South Caucasus region is experiencing a significant shift in its strategic dynamics following a U.S.-brokered peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The agreement, which promises increased regional economic integration and political cooperation, has directly challenged the traditional roles of Russia and Iran in the region.
The Zangezur Corridor and Its Implications
At the heart of the pact is the planned Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a transit route linking mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave, passing through Armenian territory. This corridor, also known as the Zangezur Corridor, provides a direct connection to Turkey and Central Asia, bypassing both Russia and Iran.
This development has raised concerns for both Russia and Iran, with Russia welcoming peace but sending a warning about U.S. involvement in the region. Ali Akbar Velayati, a key advisor to Iran's supreme leader, threatened serious consequences if the route is enacted. Iran has signaled readiness to use military means to block the Zangezur Corridor.
Impact on Russia
Russia's traditional role as the primary regional broker has been sidelined, undermining its influence over Armenia and Azerbaijan. Moscow's muted reaction to the deal indicates strategic caution and a recognition that Washington now assumes the risks and rewards of leadership in the region. Russia's geopolitical importance in the South Caucasus is challenged as the U.S. establishes a long-term commercial and strategic footprint.
Impact on Iran
Iran views the corridor as a direct threat, cutting off a transit route that previously benefitted its economic and political leverage in the Caucasus. Iranian officials have threatened to block the corridor, citing security concerns. The deal excludes Iran from a critical transit route just near its border, highlighting Tehran's weakening position in the region amid broader geopolitical setbacks. Analysts emphasize that Iran’s exclusion from the corridor represents a strategic blow, diminishing its regional influence and economic opportunities.
A New Era in the South Caucasus
Despite the concerns and threats, both Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev praised President Donald Trump and his envoy for their role in brokering the framework agreement. The accord is hailed as the start of a new era, ending more than three decades of war and hostility in the South Caucasus.
However, not everyone is pleased with the agreement. The Republican Party of Armenia views the peace agreement as a betrayal and demands full transparency. Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, a leading figure in the Armenian Apostolic Church and the "Sacred Struggle" opposition movement, was arrested on charges of orchestrating a terrorist plot to overthrow the government.
Economic Opportunities and Challenges
Armenia has granted the U.S. exclusive development rights via a 99‐year lease for infrastructure projects such as roads, rail lines, pipelines, fiber optics, and possibly power transmission. Pashinyan expects the accord to transform Armenia's investment climate and attract foreign capital. However, the U.S.-brokered peace deal also offers Washington a strategic foothold while bypassing traditional Russian and Iranian routes.
As the region navigates this new reality, tensions remain high, and the future of the Zangezur Corridor remains uncertain. Yet, the potential economic benefits and regional integration cannot be ignored, making the South Caucasus a region to watch closely in the coming years.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-brokered-peace-deal-could-challenge-russias-influence-south-caucasus-2021-11-10 [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/10/us-brokered-peace-deal-could-challenge-russias-influence-in-south-caucasus [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59232364 [4] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/10/us-brokered-peace-deal-could-challenge-russias-influence-in-south-caucasus
- The Zangezur Corridor, in light of the new peace agreement, has brought into focus the war-and-conflicts in the South Caucasus region, creating a challenging context for politics and policy-and-legislation.
- The development of the Zangezur Corridor, a potential transit route between Turkey and Central Asia, has become a source of general-news for international media outlets, as it directly affects the strategic dynamics of war-and-conflicts, politics, and policy-and-legislation in the South Caucasus.
