Leaders from Europe to convene with Ukraine's Zelenskyy and President Trump in a scheduled gathering.
The United States has proposed a unique security arrangement for Ukraine, aimed at deterring Russian aggression without provoking Moscow through NATO expansion. The plan, which is currently under negotiation, involves a "NATO-style" but non-NATO Article 5 collective defense-like promise, with the U.S. providing supporting assets such as intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), command and control (C2), air defense, logistics, and air assets to a European-led ground deployment in Ukraine.
According to Special U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, this is the first time Putin has agreed to such an arrangement for Article 5-like security guarantees. The U.S. support is conditional on European commitment to deploy "tens of thousands" of troops, with Ukrainian forces defending behind a demilitarized zone patrolled by neutral peacekeepers, while the European-led "deterrence force" operates deeper in Ukraine.
The proposed guarantees would offer Ukraine a promise of support akin to NATO’s mutual defense principle, but outside NATO’s institutional framework. This novel, conditional, and hybrid security model is designed to address Moscow’s opposition to NATO expansion while aiming to deter further Russian aggression.
However, there are concerns about whether such guarantees can balance deterrence strength with acceptability to Russia, and whether they will deliver lasting security. Skepticism remains over whether this novel security model can effectively deter Russian aggression postwar while minimizing escalation risks.
Meanwhile, European and NATO leaders are set to join President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington for talks with President Donald Trump on ending Russia's war in Ukraine. The meeting comes after a heated Oval Office encounter between Trump and Zelenskyy in February. European leaders are trying to "shape this fast-evolving agenda" in the hope of preventing Ukraine from being railroaded into a peace deal that Trump wants to broker with Russia.
Leaders from France, Britain, and Germany are rallying around President Zelenskyy after his exclusion from Trump's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Zelenskyy continues to stress the importance of both U.S. and European involvement in any negotiations. The sheer number of European leaders potentially in attendance means the group will have to be "mindful" not to give "contradictory" messages.
The possibility of U.S. security guarantees is now on the negotiating table. However, certain things that are in short supply and are only available in the United States, such as weapons for Ukraine's army, could pose a challenge. RUSI's Melvin states that Zelenskyy offers the Europeans the "only way" to get into the discussions about the future of Ukraine and European security.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed President Trump's willingness to contribute to Article 5-like security guarantees for Ukraine. Putin, however, resists meeting Zelenskyy in person, stating that such a meeting can only take place once the groundwork for a peace deal has been laid.
In the face of Putin's resistance, Zelenskyy continues to emphasize the importance of both U.S. and European involvement in any negotiations. He states that only Europe can finance this army, and weapons for this army can be provided by domestic production and European production. The 'Coalition of the willing' - including the European Union - is ready to do its share in providing security guarantees for Ukraine.
As the negotiations continue, all parties involved must navigate the complexities of this fast-evolving agenda with care, in the hope of preventing Ukraine from being railroaded into a peace deal that could jeopardize its security and sovereignty.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-ukraine-security-talks-focus-european-led-force-2021-03-03/ [2] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-offers-security-guarantees-ukraine-in-bid-deter-russian-aggression-2021-03-04/ [3] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/european-leaders-rally-around-zelenskyy-after-his-exclusion-trumps-putin-summit-2021-03-05/ [4] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskyy-to-meet-trump-amid-skepticism-over-us-security-guarantees-ukraine-2021-03-07/
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