Did Vance or Walz Win the VP Debate? Insights from Snap Polls and Betting Markets
Last Night's Vice Presidential Debate: Snap Polls and Betting Markets' Verdict
Last night's VP debate between Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator J.D. Vance felt like a cordial, policy-heavy discussion, often described as having a "Midwestern nice" vibe. However, the betting markets and snap polls suggest that Vance may have edged out Walz as the debate's victor.
Viewer Perception:
CBS News, the debate host, conducted a quick poll immediately following the event. It revealed that 42% of viewers believed Vance clinched the victory, while 41% thought Walz did better, and a notable 17% saw it as a tie.
Favorability Ratings:
After the debate, both candidates saw a boost in their popularity. Vance's favorability ratings rose significantly, making the jump from 40% to 49%. Walz, on the other hand, experienced a smaller increase, moving from 52% to 60%.
CNN also conducted a post-debate poll, demonstrating a narrow victory for Vance, with a score of 51% compared to Walz's 49%. Interestingly, both candidates' popularity surged in this poll. Walz's favorability went from 46% to 59%, and Vance's climbed from 30% to 41%.
Betting Markets:
The betting markets consistently indicated that Vance had a winning edge after the debate. On the crypto-based platform Polymarket, bettors believed Vance had a 73% chance of being viewed as the debate winner in post-debate polls, while Walz had a 27% chance. This shift in favor of Vance marks a significant change from pre-debate odds, where Walz was favored with a 70% chance of winning.
Fun Fact:
In the larger political landscape, bookmakers slightly enhanced former President Donald Trump's chances of winning on Tuesday due to favorable polls in Georgia and North Carolina before the debate. Yet, Vice President Kamala Harris still holds a slight edge, with bookmakers giving her a 50.3% probability of winning in November, compared to Trump's 48.9%.
In the post-debate analysis, Vance was seen as the winner according to both snap polls and betting markets, with 42% of CBS News viewers, 51% in CNN's poll, and a predicted 73% chance on Polymarket believing he clinched the victory. Meanwhile, despite a smaller increase, Walz's popularity also increased, reaching 60% favorability on CBS News and 59% on CNN.
