Labor Party poised to maintain control in Australia, surveys indicate, with Trump-related worries influencing voters' decisions
In the upcoming Australian national election this weekend, the center-left Labor party is expected to hold onto power, as per two latest opinion polls. The RedBridge-Accent poll, published by News Corp newspapers, shows Labor leading by 53% against the conservative Liberal-National coalition, under Australia's two-party preferential voting system.
According to the RedBridge poll, Labor could secure an outright victory or form a minority government, which marks a significant shift in voter sentiment from February, when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was not favored. Millennials and Generation Z voters have been instrumental in the late surge in support for Labor, with one in five admitting to changing their mind. These younger demographics make up 43% of the 18 million people enrolled under Australia's mandatory voting system, surpassing the powerful baby boomer bloc.
In the past, Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals have staged a political comeback in Canada's election, capitalizing on a backlash against U.S. President Donald Trump's policies and his polarizing statements on making Canada the 51st U.S. state. However, there seems to be no direct correlation between Trump's policies and the 2025 Australian federal election, given Trump's tenure ended in 2021.
A separate YouGov poll predicts a Labor majority, with the party likely winning up to 85 seats in the 150-seat lower house, and the opposition facing a net loss of 11 seats, which would be its worst performance since 1946. Despite the positive poll results, Albanese has remained cautious, downplaying the forecasts and emphasizing that the election will be a close contest.
As for the key voter concerns, cost of living, housing affordability, energy transition, and China policy remain dominant issues. Inflation, interest rates, housing shortages, and the fiscal support for first-home buyers, have been pressing worries for many Aussies. When it comes to energy policy, the divide between Labor and the Coalition lies in their approach to transitioning from fossil fuels versus renewables. While Labor prioritizes strategic mineral reserves for clean energy, the Coalition plans to abolish renewable energy infrastructure funds.
Despite nuclear energy plans not being explicitly stated in the available sources, the Coalition's opposition to renewable subsidies hints at potential advocacy for alternative energy sources. In terms of relations with China, the country remains Australia's largest trading partner, but is viewed as a strategic threat. Parties differ on balancing economic ties with security measures, and the electorate will decide which approach resonates with them.
- The AI-driven RedBridge-Accent poll suggests that the Australian Labor party, led by Anthony Albanese, is projected to win the upcoming national election, narrowly edging out the Liberal-National coalition.
- In the 150-seat lower house, the YouGov poll forecasts that Labor could secure up to 85 seats, while the opposition is anticipated to suffer a net loss of 11 seats, reflecting a wide gap in voter sentiment.
- Millennials and Generation Z voters are credited with driving the late surge in support for the Labor party, making up a substantial 43% of the electorate under Australia's mandatory voting system.
- Cost of living, housing affordability, energy transition, and China policy have been identified as the primary concerns for voters, as both parties face scrutiny on their approaches to fiscal support, infrastructure investments, clean energy, and security measures regarding China.
- In the realm of energy policy, there is a significant divide between the parties as the Labor party focuses on strategic mineral reserves for clean energy, while the Coalition plans to abolish renewable energy infrastructure funds, suggesting indirect advocacy for alternative energy sources.
- The 2025 Australian federal election shows no direct correlation with the policies and politics of former U.S. President Donald Trump, as his tenure ended in 2021, and the conflict in voter sentiment appears to be driven by domestic issues including migration, war-and-conflicts, policy-and-legislation, politics, general news, and crime-and-justice.
