Kremlin Ambitions May Be Bolstered Through George Simion's Triumph in Romania, Says Intelligence Service
In an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S-based think tank, it's suggested that if ultranationalist George Simion, Romania's far-right presidential candidate, secures victory, it could advance policies beneficial to the Kremlin's objectives in Ukraine and Moldova.
The ISW, a non-partisan and non-profit research organization, noted that Simion has advocated for the halting of Romanian aid to Ukraine and urged for territorial expansion—policies that align with the Kremlin's objectives and narratives regarding Ukraine and Moldova. Yet, Simion has expressed support for Romania's continued participation in a U.S.-led NATO to deter potential Russian aggression. Nevertheless, he continues to back Calin Georgescu, stating he might consider Georgescu for the prime minister position.
On May 4, Simion emerged as the winner in the first round of the presidential election with 41% of the vote, with Nicusor Dan, the reformist Mayor of Bucharest and founder of the Save Romania Union, securing 21% percent. The second round of voting is scheduled on May 18, with Dan advocating for increased Romanian defense spending and continued support for Ukraine.
Russian political philosopher, Aleksandr Dugin, who is close to the Russian presidency, issued messages in support of Simion, who has repeatedly expressed opposition to supporting Ukraine. Simion's stance on Ukraine's territorial integrity mirrors Kremlin claims that parts of Ukraine belong to neighboring states,echoing the Soviet Union's past territories.
Evidently, the pro-Russian hacker group NoName057 conducted DDoS attacks against several Romanian websites on election day, including government, court, justice, foreign affairs, and Senate websites, as well as the campaign websites of presidential candidates. The group claimed responsibility for the attacks, aiming to support Simion, who they see as an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
If Simion wins the election, it could potentially impact the geopolitical landscape, altering Romania's role in regional politics and relations with Ukraine and Moldova.
- Ukraine's Foreign Policy: Simion's victory could lead to a shift in Romania's foreign policy towards Ukraine, potentially reducing support for the country. His association with Calin Georgescu complicates Romania's stance on Ukraine-related issues.
- Georgescu's Influence: If Simion considers appointing Georgescu as prime minister, it could further align Romanian policy with anti-Ukraine and anti-NATO views, given Georgescu's explicit opposition to Ukraine and NATO.
- Regional Instability: Such a shift could undermine regional stability, as it might lead to less support for Ukraine from Romania, potentially emboldening Russian actions.
- Security Concerns in Moldova: A far-right government in Romania could exacerbate security concerns in Moldova, especially if Romania's foreign policy shifts towards a more nationalist stance.
- Economic Impact on Moldova: The change in Romania's foreign policy could impact Moldova's economic ties with the EU through Romania, potentially affecting Moldova's economic stability.
These implications highlight the significant geopolitical consequences that a Simion victory could have for both Ukraine and Moldova, potentially altering Romania's role in regional politics and its relations with these countries.
- The proposed policies by Simion, if he wins the election, could potentially affect Romania's foreign policy towards Ukraine, leading to a reduction in support for the country.
- Should Simion consider appointing Calin Georgescu as prime minister, it would further align Romania's policy with anti-Ukraine and anti-NATO views, due to Georgescu's explicit opposition to both Ukraine and NATO.
- The shift in Romania's foreign policy under a Simion presidency could undermine regional stability, possibly emboldening Russian actions towards Ukraine.
- A far-right government in Romania, led by Simion, might exacerbate security concerns in Moldova, particularly if Romanian foreign policy shifts towards a more nationalist stance.
- The change in Romania's foreign policy could impact Moldova's economic ties with the EU through Romania, potentially affecting Moldova's economic stability.
