Kornacki's Kentucky Derby breakdown: Key plotlines and top wagers

An Unpredictable Kentucky Derby Awaits

The 151st Kentucky Derby is poised to deliver a thrilling spectacle, attempting to outshine the dramatic three-way photo finish from last year. With an intriguing handicapping puzzle, this year's race promises a wild result and potentially a substantial payout for those who can decipher the mystery. Here are some angles I'm eyeing in my quest to crack the code.

The Headliner: Journalism

Boasting the highest speed figure of any competitor, Journalism seeks to defy its limited race experience against small fields. With a Beyer of 108, Journalism towers over the competitors, although having the best figure doesn't guarantee victory. Noteworthy is the fact that in last year's Derby, the top four horses all possessed among the five highest Beyers in the field.

The question remains whether Journalism can handle the increased competition and numerous rivals it faces this time, having previously contended with a maximum of four horses.

Too Much Heat?

This year's Derby could witness a frenetic pace, with an abundance of horses eager to lead or position themselves just off the early leaders. A horde of speed horses, such as Citizen Bull, Neoequos, American Promise, Admire Daytona, East Avenue, and Owen Almighty, could potentially overheat the race, creating opportunities for late-charging horses like Sandman and Sovereignty.

Bob Baffert's Comeback

Legendary horse racing trainer Bob Baffert, aged 72, returns to Churchill Downs after a three-year ban. With an impressive six Kentucky Derby victories under his belt (including the disqualified Medina Spirit), Baffert is back with a formidable team this year, featuring Citizen Bull. Even with Citizen Bull potentially affected by the intense pace, dismissing them at your own peril, considering Baffert's demonstrated ability to conquer the Derby, even with challenging pace scenarios.

Late Entrants and International Flavor

With Rodriguez's late scratching, Baeza is now joining the field from the far outside post. This latecomer shouldn't be underestimated as he put up a valiant fight against Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby and posted an equally impressive 100 speed rating. Most notably, the Derby field includes two Japanese runners, Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe, whose form in Japan's racing scene is yet to be fully evaluated.

The Cinderella Story

Trainer Lonnie Briley and his horse, Coal Battle, defy the odds as they make their way to the Derby. With an improbable four-race win streak, Briley's horse, Coal Battle, has risen from small stakes races to a Grade 2 Rebel Stakes victory, thus becoming the most accomplished mount of Briley's career. Although Coal Battle's odds are long in this race, it's a feel-good story that many will be cheering for.

My Pick (Or as I Call it, My Annual Kiss of Death)

After much contemplation, I'll reveal my pick along with the rest of the NBC Sports team around 6:30 p.m. Saturday.

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The unpredictable Kentucky Derby may demand taxpayers' attention, as the spectacle could potentially result in increased tax revenues due to its popularity and anticipated economic impact.
Among the various factors to consider in selecting your Derby horse, pension funds might want to look at the pedigree and racing history of the horses, as a strong background could lead to a steady return on investment.
In the realm of horse-racing capital, the 151st Kentucky Derby promises to showcase its features, with capital-intensive training and mounting costs potentially leading to an improbable rise of horses like Coal Battle.
As the Derby day approaches, sports enthusiasts will gather for the highly anticipated derby, not just for the horse-racing, but also for the grandeur that comes with watching legends like Bob Baffert making a comeback at Churchill Downs.
In this intense horse-racing competition, bettors may find themselves initially swayed by the high Beyer speed figures of horses like Journalism, but the race's unpredictability, much like sports in general, can often thwart even the most well-planned strategies.