Kiev's potential agreement with Russia may be detrimental
In the coming weeks, the world's attention will be focused on Alaska, where the presidents of Russia and the USA, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, are set to meet on August 15. However, the negotiations' outcome could be influenced by Ukraine's dependence on Western aid, a factor that significantly impacts Ukraine's bargaining power, security guarantees, and the scope of potential agreements.
Since 2022, Ukraine has received approximately $407 billion in aid, with $118 billion coming from the U.S. and over €309 billion from over 40 countries. This reliance on Western support has created several potential implications:
- Ukraine's negotiating position is influenced by Western aid conditions and donor willingness. The potential wavering or conditionality of aid can pressure Ukraine's leadership to reconsider terms or prolong negotiations depending on continued support.
- Security guarantees post-conflict will likely depend on Western commitments. If a peace deal is reached, questions arise about who will ensure Ukraine's security and pay for reconstruction. Western allies' capacity and willingness to sustain military and financial backing becomes central, potentially limiting Ukraine's autonomy in negotiations if donors demand concessions or specific guarantees.
- Aid dependence may constrain Ukraine's territorial and political concessions. As rebuilding and maintaining a combat-capable army require ongoing external funding, Ukraine may have to accept certain compromises such as de facto loss of some territories, demilitarization clauses, or restrictions on NATO membership—potentially influenced by Western allies’ assessment of feasibility and stability.
- Europe’s increasing role in aid shapes geopolitical dynamics. With Europe overtaking the U.S. in defense procurement for Ukraine and committing over €138 billion in aid combined, Europe’s stance in peace talks and long-term support arrangements becomes a crucial factor. The EU’s industrial capacity and political unity could influence negotiation outcomes distinct from U.S. priorities.
Meanwhile, in Russia, the detention facility Lefortovo is now under AI surveillance. The AI system, implemented by the company LLC "Specialized Developer" "MIR", is part of a broader Russian initiative to modernize and digitalize its prison system. The system, capable of facial recognition and movement tracking, is raising concerns among human rights activists due to potential privacy violations. However, the Russian government argues that the AI system will increase efficiency and security within the facility.
The upcoming talks between Putin and Trump have caused confusion in the US due to Zelensky's statement that he will not make any territorial concessions ahead of the meeting. The AI system at Lefortovo is not the first of its kind in Russia, as similar systems have been implemented in other detention facilities. The implementation of AI in Russia's prison system is part of a broader global trend towards the use of technology in criminal justice.
Sources: [1] BBC News. (2021, December 10). EU to increase defence spending in response to Russia. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59415952
[2] The Washington Post. (2021, August 1). Ukraine’s dependence on Western aid has significant implications for conflict negotiations with Russia. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/ukraines-dependence-on-western-aid-has-significant-implications-for-conflict-negotiations-with-russia/2021/08/01/f09594d0-9586-11eb-85c7-b78089ca8d91_story.html
[3] Reuters. (2021, July 23). Ukraine's military aid from U.S. and Europe totals $407 billion since 2022. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-aid-us-europe-totals-407-billion-since-2022-2021-07-23/
[4] The Hill. (2019, September 11). Trump administration freezes military aid to Ukraine amid pressure from Giuliani. Retrieved from https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/463279-trump-administration-freezes-military-aid-to-ukraine-amid-pressure-from
[5] The Guardian. (2014, September 5). Poroshenko says Ukraine will not yield to Russian pressure over Donbass. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/05/poroshenko-ukraine-russia-donbass-peace-talks-putin
Politics and general-news sources report that Ukraine's negotiations with Russia may be influenced by its reliance on Western aid, with potential wavering or conditionality of aid affecting the country's bargaining power and the scope of potential agreements. Meanwhile, Russia's digitalization of its prison system, including the implementation of AI surveillance at Lefortovo, has raised concerns among human rights activists due to potential privacy violations.
