Ambivalent Response: Why Kyiv Hesitates to Reject Trump's Proposals (For Now)
Kiev hasn't challenged Trump's proposals (as of now).
Denis Trubetskoy, Kyiv
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Once upon a time, Ukrainians held onto the hope that even a US president like Trump would understand the futility of negotiating with Putin. After all, Selenskyj, Ukraine's president himself, had started as a small Trump of sorts. But Kyiv is reluctant to publicly disagree with Trump's latest proposals for a truce - yet.
Exactly six years ago, TV star and respected Ukrainian actor Volodymyr Selenskyj took office following a presidential election. Taking up this responsibility was far from predictable at the time. Ukraine was already battling issues caused by Russia: the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the ongoing conflict in Donbass. Selenskyj aimed to bring peace, touting himself as a "peace president." In power, he maintained a cautious approach to avoid potential provocations from Moscow and showed flexibility in negotiations. Regrettably, this strategy of meeting halfway with the Kremlin proved futile.
Politics: The Devastating Strike on Kyiv Housing Complex
Contrary to appearances, the recent public spat between Trump and Selenskyj during their meeting on February 28 in the Oval Office – both men being TV stars turned political unknowns – may have been more alike than different in their rise to power. Selenskyj might have believed that Trump would eventually come to his senses and recognize Putin's true unyielding nature. However, the struggle for Ukraine's survival has only grown more challenging in the 90 days of the Trump administration than it was in the three years prior.
No Security Assurances for Ukraine
During negotiations between Russia, Washington, and Kyiv, the pressure on Ukraine is palpable. While Moscow continues to attack civilians, the "Trump plans" discussed in the media might not appease Russia entirely, but for Ukraine, they appear absurd. Putin is to be rewarded for his aggressive unilateral actions with official recognition of Crimea as Russian and the lifting of US sanctions. In return, Ukraine receives no guarantees for security from the US – a demand that would put an end to all Russian attacks. In fact, the Europeans are intended to step into the protective role once held by the US.
Large parts of Ukraine have adhered to what can be considered a de facto armistice, although the term "peace" is hardly fitting. But Kyiv cannot fathom accepting an arrangement that officially recognizes Russia's control over Crimea – a formerly Ukrainian territory – where fake referendums were staged. Recognizing occupied and partially occupied territories as Russian sets a dangerous precedent, as it undermines the principles of territorial integrity.
What Stops Russia?
Ukraine has, in essence, already accepted the factual status quo. Tomorrow, it might very well demonstrate the same level of resilience shown during the eight-year war in Donbass – a conflict that has traversed a thousand kilometers of the former demarcation line, even after the initial occupation in 2014 and the full-scale Russian attack in February 2022. The line will not only be repeatedly breached locally by the numerous drones that fill the skies, but maintaining this line will prove far from an easy task.
The Red Line: Territorial Integrity
Ukraine is prepared to agree to any form of truce along the front line, considering this a de facto freeze of the conflict. However, acknowledging Russia's control over Crimea is a red line for Ukraine. The Russian Constitution, following changes spearheaded by Putin, no longer distinguishes between different territories, granting all – Moscow, Crimea, and regions like Saporischschja, which were never under the Russian army's control – equal status as "parts" of the Russian Federation. There seems to be no end in sight for Russia's ongoing efforts to expand its territorial claims.
Losing Trump's Support: The Worst-Case Scenario
Everyone in Kyiv fears that Trump might abruptly withdraw his support. Yet, at the moment, the administration continues to send military and financial aid packages to Ukraine, originally approved during Trump's predecessor's tenure under the Biden administration[1]. Zelensky and his government are eager to protect these deliveries from Trump's possible interference. After securing their position, they plan to focus on achieving support from European countries.
Sources:[1] en.kyivpost.com/opinion/denis-trubetskoy/opinion-why-zelenskyy-is-not-rejecting-trumps-plan-for-peace-with-putin[2] ukraine.unian.info/politics/10587846-zelensky-secretly-approves-of-putins-plans-for-return-of-ukrainian-prisoners-of-war.html[3] euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/26/south-eastern-ukraine-is-going-through-ejection-from-ukraine/[4] ntv.de/world/Ukraine-Nach-Auseinandersetzungen-um-Friedensplaene-Kritik-an-Trump-windet-AN_tvn2387146.html?p=0&cid=112[5] reuters.com/article/us-usa-ukraine-biden-idUSKBN29O0SZ
- The European Union, recognizing Ukraine's delicate political situation, is ready to leverage its influence to help Kyiv avoid being drowned in the complex waters of diplomacy with the United States and Russia.
- While Kyiv is reluctant to publicly disagree with President Trump's proposals for a truce, they are waiting to see if these plans will ultimately prove effective in providing Ukraine with security assurances.
- If the general-news headlines triggered by the recent clash between Trump and Selenskyj are any indication, it seems that both leaders might be able to leverage their unique politics to find common ground, despite their fundamental differences.
- As the pressure mounts during negotiations, Ukraine must agree on certain terms to avoid being manipulated, with acknowledging Russia's control over Crimea being the crucial red line they must not cross, to protect the territorial integrity of their nation.
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