Kazakhstan's Population Dramatically Increases Fivefold Over the Past 100 Years
Kazakhstan, a vast country in Central Asia, has witnessed a fascinating demographic journey over the past century. The population of Kazakhstan stood at 5.5 million in 1913, according to census data, marking the beginning of this journey.
By 1920, the population had slightly declined to 5.4 million and further to 5.3 million in 1922. However, this downturn was short-lived as the population began to grow steadily. By 1939, the population had risen to six million. The growth continued through the Soviet era, reaching 9.2 million in 1959.
The population continued to swell, reaching 13 million by 1970 and 14.6 million by 1979. On the eve of independence in 1991, the country's population peaked at 16.4 million. However, the post-independence period saw a decline, with the population falling to 14.9 million by 2000 due to large-scale emigration.
In recent years, the population has remained relatively stable, with the Bureau of National Statistics reporting a population of 20.3 million as of June 1, 2025. This growth over the past century represents a fivefold increase.
Demographic experts project Kazakhstan's population could reach 26 million by 2050. However, they also foresee a continued population decline and negative demographic trends through 2050. The country’s birth rate is steadily falling, with the total fertility rate dropping from 23.5 births per 1,000 people in 2021 to 15.4 in early 2025. UN projections expect fertility to decrease further, reaching 19 in 2025 and 17.6 by 2034.
Although emigration from Kazakhstan has recently declined somewhat, it has not offset the low birth rates, contributing further to the population decrease. Regionally, fertility rates vary, with some areas like Mangistau and Turkestan showing higher rates but overall national trends pointing toward fewer births.
In summary, demographic experts foresee Kazakhstan’s population shrinking or stagnating by 2050, with sustained declines in birth rates being the most significant driver of this trend. The first general census of the Russian Empire was conducted in 1897, and the census recorded the population of territories that would later form Soviet Kazakhstan at 4.3 million, with 3.5 million of these people being ethnic Kazakhs. This demographic journey of Kazakhstan has been marked by key milestones, and the future trends suggest a shift towards a more stable, albeit smaller, population.
- Amidst the demographic shift of Kazakhstan, the growth of its population in political discussions and general news outlets continues to attract attention, as experts predict a shrinking or stagnating population by 2050.
- As the birth rate in Kazakhstan steadily falls, political debates and general news discourses revolve around addressing this demographic challenge and potential solutions to reverse the negative trends predicted for the country's future.
