July 28th's Enigma of Various Unsolved Variables

In the upcoming Venezuelan presidential election on July 28, 2023, millions of voters will decide whether to grant President Nicolás Maduro another six years in office or opt for an alternative candidate. As the election approaches, questions linger about Chavismo's residual influence after 25 years in power and 11 years under Maduro's leadership.

Over the past decade, Maduro's administration has faced numerous attacks from critics and adversaries, whether it be imperial power interference, right-wing opposition machinations, or internal betrayals. The harsh economic Realities and political instability have tested the mettle of Maduro and his team, but they've proven resilient, weathering countless storms with grit and determination.

Some analysts suggest that Chavismo reached rock bottom between 2015 and 2019 but is now rising from the ashes, thanks to a modest yet sustained economic recovery and the discrediting of the opposition during those turbulent years. Opposition leaders encouraged and backed sanctions and unilateral coercive measures while even advocating for foreign military intervention and hiring mercenary terrorists.

However, many opinion polls and experts question whether voters will continue to support Maduro based upon the possible continuation of this reactivation or if they will seek political change through electoral means.

The Opposition's Strategy

Nine opposition candidates are vying for the top spot, but the media focus relentlessly on Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, a 74-year-old former Foreign Ministry official with no previous history in elected office. Gonzalez Urrutia, who was registered as a provisional candidate, may be replaced by outspoken far-right leader Maria Corina Machado, winner of a primary election process held by a sector of the opposition, despite being disqualified from holding public office.

The Machado-Gonzalez campaign aims to mobilize the anti-Chavista vote, which has maintained a substantial segment of the electorate for many years. Yet, after years of declaring that "a dictatorship does not fall with votes," they are now calling for the people to return to the polls. The main opposition parties (Democratic Action, A New Time, Justice First, and Popular Will), commonly known as the G-4, have refused to participate in most electoral processes over the past seven years (e.g., National Constituent Assembly, municipalities, and governorships, 2017; the 2018 presidential elections; and the 2020 parliamentary elections).

Apart from Gonzalez Urrutia, the other eight presidential candidates span the center to the center-right, including Antonio Ecarri, Claudio Fermin, Luis Eduardo Martinez, Benjamín Rausseo, Javier Bertucci, Enrique Maquez, Daniel Ceballos, and Jose Brito. They all try to draw from the treasure hidden within the non-polarized segment of the population, otherwise known as the indifferents or those disenchanted with both sides and their constant conflicts.

The PSUV and Government Strategy

Venezuela's United Socialist Party (PSUV), its allies, and the government have developed a campaign focused on the following elements:

Highlighting the opposition's role in the tremendous damage caused by foreign sanctions and blockades.
Emphasizing Maduro's personal image as a resilient leader capable of weathering storms and connecting with the youth through dynamic social media formats and public interactions.
Bringing the opposition leadership that participated in the 2020 "interim government" to account for their actions.

Post-Election Scenarios

If Gonzalez Urrutia or another opposition candidate wins, it will be interesting to see how the right-wing factions manage their relationships and follow the undisputed leader for non-Chavismo, Maria Corina Machado.

On the other hand, if Maduro retains power, the post-election war among opposition leaders will likely be legendary, as rival factions within the G-4 vie for a larger space on the national political stage in anticipation of 2025, which will be an election year featuring multiple votes for parliament, governors, legislative councils, mayors, and municipalities.

In the event of an opposition defeat, Maria Corina Machado might once again declare electoral fraud and seek the support of the international community, especially if Donald Trump regains power in the United States. This scenario would become increasingly feasible if Trump continues to promote the Venezuelan "interim government."

If Maduro wins, he will endeavor to steer the country towards economic growth while attempting to improve wealth distribution, an especially daunting task for a government advocating socialism. After his 2012 election victory, Chavez announced wide-ranging reforms to his government, commonly known as "striking at the helm." Maduro will have to do something similar if he is to start his third six-year term in the Miraflores Presidential Palace.

The author, Clodovaldo Herandez, is a journalist and political analyst with over two decades of experience in higher education. He has won numerous awards, including the National Journalism Prize in 2002. His writings span poetry, short stories, journalistic profiles, and novels.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Venezuelanalysis editorial staff.

In the upcoming Venezuelan presidential election on July 28, 2023, the media focus is on Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, a 74-year-old former Foreign Ministry official, who may be replaced by Maria Corina Machado, despite being disqualified from holding public office.
If Gonzalez Urrutia or another opposition candidate wins, it will be interesting to see how the right-wing factions manage their relationships with Maria Corina Machado, the undisputed leader for non-Chavismo.
If Maduro retains power, the post-election war among opposition leaders might be legendary, as rival factions within the G-4 vie for a larger space on the national political stage in anticipation of 2025, which will be an election year featuring multiple votes.
In the event of an opposition defeat, Maria Corina Machado might once again declare electoral fraud and seek the support of the international community, especially if Donald Trump regains power in the United States.
If Maduro wins, he will endeavor to steer the country towards economic growth while attempting to improve wealth distribution, an especially daunting task for a government advocating socialism, as he did after his 2012 election victory when Chavez announced wide-ranging reforms to his government.