IV. Struggling with Lawlessness: Russian Roulette in Post-Assad Syria
In a recent turn of events, the Syrian regime, once a partner of Russia, has crumbled. This shift has sparked questions about the future of the region and the implications for global powers, particularly Russia.
The fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad marks a new phase in the lengthy Syrian conflict, leaving many unanswered questions. Was external support behind the rebel groups? What does this mean for powers like Russia? Will the power vacuum be filled by non-state actors?
It appears that this power play benefits American and Israeli interests in the region. With the collapse of a key Russian partner and a major link in the Axis of Resistance against Israel, the geopolitics of the region are bound to undergo a profound shift.
The US government maintains contact with Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), a rebranded terrorist group affiliated with Al-Qaeda, despite its sanctions by the UN and several other states. Moreover, US forces in Syria have been aiding opposition groups during the offensive against the Syrian regime. The positive coverage given to terrorist outfits, especially HTS, despite their sanctioned status, suggests America's tilt in the current geostrategic developments.
Russia's role in Syria was limited to military facilitation rather than comprehensive regime stabilization. Russia provided significant military backing but was never a primary political advisor to Assad. The factors that led to the regime's downfall, such as internal corruption and crumbling loyalty within the Syrian army, made external support futile.
While some claim this signals a strategic loss for Russia, Moscow's priorities in Syria have evolved since its initial intervention in 2015. Syria was once a crucial arena for breaking international isolation, showcasing Russian military capabilities, and preventing a Qatari gas pipeline to Europe - objectives that have now lost relevance. Russia's military campaign in Syria provided an opportunity to test and market its advanced weaponry, but Ukraine has become the primary stage for demonstrating military technology under real combat conditions.
Russia's strategic focus has shifted from counterterrorism operations to broader regional stability. As of now, Russia maintains two key military facilities in Syria: the Khmeimim Air Base and the naval base in Tartus. However, Syria's decision to terminate the Tartus port management contract with a Russian company has disrupted military logistics, complicating Russia's position. Russia seems to be executing a strategic pivot to Libya, relocating significant naval assets to the ports of Misrata and Al-Hums. This move grants Russia unprecedented access to the central Mediterranean, potentially threatening NATO's southern flank.
The future holds two major possibilities for Syria. The first is a power vacuum leading to the rise of new radical outfits, potentially creating a new playground for foreign power projection. The second is a stronger HTS reaching a compromise with other factions, forming a working coalition or providing regional territorial influence within Syria.
Regardless, Russia's strategic interests in Syria remain strong, despite the challenges posed by a changing political landscape and the need to adapt to a post-Assad era. Russia is engaged in negotiations with the new Syrian government, seeking to maintain its presence, especially along the Syrian coast. However, Syria must navigate a complex geopolitical landscape, with Russia and Turkey being key players. Russia aims to preserve its influence, while Turkey focuses on northern Syria to limit Kurdish influence.
Overall, the fall of the Syrian regime underscores the limited impact of external intervention in stabilizing fragile regimes. Despite the challenges, Russia's role in Syria has always been one of measured engagement rather than unconditional commitment.
- The fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad, a former partner of Russia, has led to uncertainties about the future of the region and the implications for global powers, particularly Russia, as it construes a new phase in the lengthy Syrian conflict.
- While the Russian government's role in Syria was once perceived to be comprehensive regime stabilization, the recent developments have revealed that Russia provided significant military backing but was never a primary political advisor to Assad.
- Despite the changes in Syria, Russia's strategic interests in the region still remain strong, with Russia seeking to maintain its presence, especially along the Syrian coast, through negotiations with the new Syrian government.
- The future of Syria, given the possibilities of a power vacuum or the rise of new radical outfits, is a concern for both Russia and Turkey, who are key players in the complex geopolitical landscape of the region, particularly in terms of preserving and extending their influences.
