Pivotal Vatican Moments
Italian Cardinal Emerges as 34% Favored Contender for New Papal Role
The renowned prediction market titan, based in New York, which amassed an astonishing $3.7bn in bets during the 2024 US Presidential Election, is now offering odds on the upcoming Pope following Pope Francis' demise.
As of Monday's close, Polymarket's online betting platform ranks Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the preferred candidate to assume the papacy and lead the Roman Catholic Church, with a 34% win probability.
Pope Francis' sudden demise was a shock,
On Monday, the beloved pontiff passed away due to a stroke and an irreversible cardiovascular arrest. The shocking news came shortly after Pope Francis appeared in public for the last time at Easter Sunday's celebrations, much to the delight of adoring crowds in Rome.
The world will surely mourn the loss of one of the most charismatic Popes in recent history, but the selection of the new leader of the 1.3 billion-strong Catholic congregation signifies a significant social, political, and economic shift.
Papal Aspirants Arise
While Cardinal Parolin is the frontrunner to emerge from the Vatican's next conclave, lodged in secrecy by the College of Cardinals, the papal election has long been a subject of intrigue and debate. Betting firms have capitalized on this fascination over the years, generating massive revenues by offering odds on the next Bishop of Rome, his chosen name, and even the prolonged duration of the conclave.
An Italian seemingly leads the political race, with Parolin, the Vatican's Secretary of State since 2013, often dubbed as a 'deputy pope.'
According to Polymarket, Filipino Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle is the second-favorite, at 23%. While Parolin is seen as a more moderate choice for Pope, "Asian Francis" Tagle focuses on social justice issues.
Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi trails behind in third place, at 10%. Zuppi gained favor during the 2023 Russia-Ukraine war peace mission, a mission entrusted to him by the late Pope Francis. Like Parolin, Zuppi holds notable political leverage, as he is the current President of the Episcopal Conference of Italy.
Zuppi, a progressive figure, authored a 2018 book advocating for dialogue and understanding with the LGBT community.
The Road Ahead
A nine-day period of mourning follows the Pope's passing, after which the conclave is expected to convene between May 1st and 3rd. The College of Cardinals will announce the exact date subsequent to paying their respects to the late pontiff.
Once the conclave is in session, it will take several days to announce the new Pope, with recent voting processes lasting between 1 to 5 days.
Despite the ongoing legal limitations for US residents, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has decided to gamble on another potential FBI raid, as he plowed ahead with accepting $3.5m in bets on the next Pope, with wagers split among 18 potential candidates.
[1] Polymarket.com
[2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/05/will-the-next-pope-be-black-mobile-betting-on-the-vatican
[3] https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/30/world/pope-francis-health-intl-hnk/index.html
[4] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/10/next-pope-candidate-odds-francis-arinze.html
[5] https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-denies-promoting-fake-news-vatican-pope-twitter-post-2023-04-06/
- The Polymarket, a significant prediction market platform, recently started offering odds on the upcoming Pope after Pope Francis' passing, with Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin being the frontrunner at a 34% win probability.
- Amidst other potential candidates, Filipino Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle is the second-favorite at 23%, with a focus on social justice issues, while Cardinal Matteo Zuppi trails behind in third place at 10%, known for his progressive stand on issues like dialogue with the LGBT community.
- Despite legal limitations for US residents, Polymarket is accepting bets on the next Pope, with wagers distributed among 18 potential candidates, demonstrating the platform's risk in anticipation of another potential FBI raid.
