Israel's military action could potentially trigger a shift in Iran's governmental structure, according to Netanyahu. What are the chances of this happening?
In the chaos that ensued after Israel launched a series of aggressive attacks on Iran, voices for regime change within Iran have grown louder, coming from US politicians, Israeli officials, and some Iranian activists overseas. They contend that the Islamic Republic has been significantly weakened and now is the opportune moment to capitalize on domestic discontent and public unrest to dismantle the ruling clerical establishment, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated in an interview with Fox News that Israel's operation "could certainly" result in regime change, as the Iranian government is "very weak." He boldly claimed that "80% of the people would throw these theological thugs out." Netanyahu passionately declared that the decision to rise up against the regime is in the hands of the Iranian people.
However, freedom of speech is heavily restricted in Iran, and there have been no large-scale public calls from within the country to overthrow the regime following Israel's attacks. Many experts argue that Netanyahu may be misinterpreting Iranian public sentiment and that the strikes could backfire, causing ordinary Iranians to direct their anger towards Israel.
Arash Azizi, an Iran expert based in New York City and author of the book "What Iranians Want," expressed his perspective to CNN: "Iranian activists, people who have fought for freedom and justice all their lives, first of all know that their value has little to do with people like Netanyahu. His right-wing government is not at all aligned with their values."
Iran has experienced numerous nationwide protests against its regime, particularly in 2022 and 2023, sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman arrested by Iran's morality police for allegedly not wearing her headscarf properly. Since then, many activists have been detained, and authorities have stepped up repression, instilling fear with a rise in criminal prosecutions and executions. Dissatisfaction is rampant.
However, experts, and Iranians under Israeli bombardment, have said that most Iranians do not see Netanyahu or his government as having the solutions to their domestic problems. Some argued that an uprising is very unlikely at this time, with many Iranians not expressing support for Netanyahu's calls for revolt out of fear for their safety.
A local Iranian journalist told CNN that while some believe the conflict could lead to a potential push for regime change, they aspire to build their future themselves. Others argue that the Israeli attacks are not the foundation for political change, and that such a shift should occur through democratic means. Another journalist, speaking anonymously, told CNN that the general consensus at home is that the regime is not weak, and that people are unlikely to protest while their cities are under attack.
In summary, while Israeli attacks on Iran have stirred calls for regime change, these calls are met with skepticism and resistance from within Iran, with the majority of the population viewing Israel and its associates as external agents acting against their interests. Many Iranians seek democratic reforms, and any foreign intervention is seen as a potential threat that could further entrench the existing regime.
- Despite the calls for regime change from US politicians, Israeli officials, and some Iranian activists overseas, the Iranian public, especially those living in Iran, have expressed skepticism towards Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's claims about the Iranian people rising against the regime.
- General news reports indicate that many Iranians aspire to build their future through democratic means, viewing foreign intervention, such as Israeli attacks, not only as a potential threat but also as ineffective in instigating genuine political change within Iran.
