Israel's comprehensive offensive actions against Iran's nuclear facilities: A preliminary analysis of the current state of affairs
Unleashing Havoc: An In-Depth Look at Israel's Audacious Operation Against Iran
Let's dive into the explosive saga unfolding between Israel and Iran, as Israel kicks off an extraordinary military and intelligence operation like none before. I was there, live with Anderson Cooper, as it all went down, and now, with more info on the table, here are the top three points to mull over as the action continues to unfold.
Point 1: A full-spectrum assault, unparalleled in scale and audacity
Israel has christened this operation "Operation Rising Lion," a nod to the Iranian people (and their national symbol, a lion and sun) pre-revolution. But to me, it's also a kitchen sink scenario: airstrikes galore, sabotage, covert operatives working inside Iran, and targets spread across the entire country.
The success of this offensive has been swift and devastating. Top commanders, missile and drone chiefs, the head of Iran's external support for proxies across the Middle East, and more—the slaughterhouse is far from over, with many more names yet to roll off the tongue.
President Donald Trump this morning issued a chilling warning to Iran: the attacks will persist until Iran returns to the negotiating table and agrees to dismantle its nuclear program. This leaves Iran's leaders in a tight spot, wary for their lives while attempting to maintain an air of confidence within their own battered nation, all while considering retaliation options against Israel.
Point 2: Israel's dominance in intelligence and air supremacy, pushing Iran into a corner
By obliterating an entire command structure in a matter of hours, Israel has demonstrated a total intelligence infiltration of Iran. They've now also achieved air supremacy. This double whammy will limit Iran's capacity to mount a cohesive and coordinated response. Israel took out much of Iran's strategic air defense systems last year in response to Iran's ballistic missile attack against Israel. Now, they've taken out the rest, giving Israeli pilots free rein to fly wherever they please above Iranian skies, manned or unmanned.
Point 3: The catalyst: a blunder by Iran, fueled by nuclear escalations
The events of October 7, 2023, set off a seismic shift in the Middle East—but not in the way Hamas, a terrorist group long supported by Iran's Quds Force, intended. Hamas hoped their invasion would weaken Israel so severely that Israel's existence would be called into question.
Immediately after the October 7 attacks, Iran blundered by joining in the assaults against Israel. They supported Hezbollah in Lebanon to open a northern front against Israel, provided munitions to proxies across the Middle East, and launched two massive direct salvos of missiles and drones against Israel in April and October of last year. Both attacks were largely thwarted by Israel and a coalition of military forces led by the United States.
But Israel's tolerance for threats had reached its limit. After October 7, they wouldn't allow tensions to simmer any longer—especially when it came to Iran's nuclear programs, which Iran escalated significantly after October 7.
Last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency found Iran in "egregious failure" with respect to upholding commitments to demonstrate its nuclear program lacked a military dimension. Iran then responded with another escalation, announcing it would install new advanced centrifuges in a deeply buried facility called Fordow, and declaring a new underground enrichment facility, all with no plausible civilian need or use case. These moves threatened to place Iran's nuclear activities out of reach of a military response should diplomatic efforts to curtail the program fail.
This was clearly the last straw for Israel, and understandably so. Israel will not allow an adversary to sit on the threshold of a nuclear weapons capability. They will act to defend themselves, and last night, they felt they had a unique window to do so.
That opportunity was opened because of the staunch support the United States provided Israel across two administrations. Hezbollah is degraded and ineffective. The Assad regime in Syria—historically an Iranian ally—is gone, eliminating Iran's ability to export weapons and terrorists across the Middle East towards Israel. Iran's air defenses were degraded last year, reducing the risk for Israeli pilots during air attacks.
The crisis is far from over, with both Israel and Iran's attacks ongoing. I helped coordinate the defense of Israel from the White House back in 2024, and I know that any attack with hundreds of missiles is extremely serious, but we know how to defend against such attacks, and must be prepared to do so again.
By Friday afternoon, Eastern time, Iran had fired "hundreds of various ballistic missiles" towards Israel, marking the beginning of their "crushing response" to Israeli attacks on the country. It's crucial that the United States steps up to help defend Israel against these attacks, as it did twice in 2024.
The fastest way to defuse this situation once and for all would be for Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions and for Hamas to release hostages and relinquish control in Gaza. They are the ones who started this war, and until they do so, Israel will continue to act in its own national security interest, and the United States will stand by its side. That is the unyielding equation in the Middle East today, ignited by events launched by Hamas and Iran and now recoiling against them.
The political implications of this war-and-conflicts between Israel and Iran are significant, as President Donald Trump's warning to Iran suggests a potential return to negotiations about dismantling its nuclear program. This general news could have far-reaching effects on the region and international relations.
In this ongoing war-and-conflicts, Israeli dominance in intelligence and air supremacy, demonstrated through Operation Rising Lion, is pushing Iran into a corner. This dominance significantly limits Iran's capacity to mount a cohesive and coordinated response, as Israeli pilots enjoy freedom of movement above Iranian skies.
