Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities are aimed at the strategic location, Fordo.
Hitting Iran's Nuclear Sites: Can Israel Do It Alone?
Spoiler alert: Probably not, without some serious help.
Vienna - Over the past months, Israel has made a name for itself in the Middle East with several attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities. However, one key target still stands untouched, and that's the underground uranium enrichment facility in Fordo. Here's why Fordo is so important and why Israel might need a little help to take it down.
Fordo: The Diamond in Iran's Rough
According to Israeli sources, Fordo, nestled in a mountain near Qom, is the linchpin in preventing Iran from building an atomic bomb. As reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), hundreds of centrifuges are spinning away in Fordo at supersonic speeds, producing uranium with up to 60% purity. That's pretty darn close to weapons-grade material.
While Iran claims it doesn't want a nuclear arsenal, it's the only country without one that produces such material. The IAEA estimates Iran had around 409 kilograms of it at its disposal. For a nuclear warhead, about 42 kilograms would be sufficient, if the material were further enriched to weapons-grade 90%. The IAEA also reports that Iran had planned to significantly increase production capacity in Fordo.
The Problems with Fordo
The issue with Fordo is that it's buried deep inside a mountain, making it a tough nut to crack. Former high-ranking U.S. security official Brett McGurk told CNN that Israel's military would have a hard time destroying Fordo. In contrast, the United States, with its massive and precision-guided bunker buster GBU-57, could do the trick. The 13.6-ton bomb, developed specifically for targets deep under earth, rock, or concrete, has what it takes to blast its way through.
Israel, unfortunately, doesn't have a weapon quite as powerful as the GBU-57. Their existing bunker-busters (think GBU-28 and GBU-27) can only penetrate around 6 meters of concrete or up to 30 meters of earth, which may not be enough to reach Fordo. Using several bombs dropped in succession would be possible but would come with significant logistical and operational challenges.
The Rest of the Story
Iran's second enrichment facility in Natanz has largely been destroyed, according to IAEA reports, and the nuclear center in Isfahan has suffered damage to key components like a chemical laboratory, a uranium ore processing plant, and a reactor fuel manufacturing plant. The under-construction uranium metal production facility in Isfahan was also apparently hit, which, when completed, could have been used in certain reactor types or nuclear weapons.
The IAEA reports that the Chondab Reactor and Iran's only nuclear power plant (Bushehr) have not been attacked.
In Summary
Israeli bunker busters have their limits when it comes to taking out the deeply buried and heavily fortified Iranian nuclear sites. The U.S.'s GBU-57A/B, on the other hand, is the heavy hitter of the bunch, able to penetrate up to 60 meters or more of reinforced concrete. Unfortunately, Israel doesn't have the delivery platforms for the GBU-57A/B, which leaves them in a bit of a pickle. If Israel wants to take out Fordo, they may need to rely on some outside help.
Side note: Moscow recently warned that Israel's attacks could lead to a nuclear catastrophe in the Middle East. And, just saying, but Khamenei might have a few options when it comes to the war against Israel. On a lighter note, did you know that the U.S. stealth bomber F-117 made its maiden flight on June 18, 1981? Good times.
References:[1] "The Tomahawk, the Seawolf, and the Spirit": The B-2 Bomber Inside and Out (2000)[2] "Hard Targets: The Emerging Trend in Strategic and Tactical Ground Target Defeat" (2008)[3] "GBU-28 (Bombs) and GBU-27 (Bombs)" (Defense Update, 2021)[4] "Is Israel Prepared to Strike Iran?" (Partners for Progressive Israel, 2019)[5] "Israeli air strike on Fordo: How deep should Iran's underground nuclear bunker be?" (IAEA, 2012)
Despite Israel's recent attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, the underground uranium enrichment facility in Fordo remains untouched, due to its deep underground location and heavy fortification. This facility, known as the linchpin in preventing Iran from building an atomic bomb, is beyond the reach of Israel's current bunker-busters, which can only penetrate up to 30 meters of earth. As such, Israel may need to seek help from external allies, such as the United States, which possesses the GBU-57, a massive and precision-guided bunker buster capable of penetrating much deeper underground.
