The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict: A thorny path for China's potential mediation
Israel remains open to dialogue with China, disregarding the criticism towards Israel's strikes on Iran, as stated by the Israeli ambassador.
Eli Belotserkovsky left the door slightly ajar for China to step in as a mediator, but he clarified that the ultimate concern was China's military operation during an interview with the SCMP on Wednesday.
As for Beijing's viewpoint, Belotserkovsky acknowledged the significant importance of the partnership between China and Israel. He highlighted the open lines of communication that existed between the two nations.
"We'll keep chatting with China as part of an ongoing dialogue," he said.
A tricky balancing act for China
Despite stronger ties with Iran, including a 2021 economic, military, and security agreement and Iran serving as the sixth-largest supplier of oil to China, China is deeply reliant on Gulf states and Russia for its main oil supply.[1][2] Any disturbances caused by the conflict, such as the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, could pose a significant threat to China's economy.[1][2]
To safeguard its strategic interests, such as energy security, Belt and Road investments, and preventing a wider conflict that could destabilize the region,[2] China publicly advocates for de-escalation and positions itself as a mediator for regional peace.
Challenges for mediation
Despite China's ambitions and some diplomatic groundwork to act as a mediator—capitalizing on its recent success in brokering Iran-Saudi reconciliation in 2023[4]—China's impartiality is questionable due to its obvious pro-Iran stance. This bias, combined with strained relations with Israel and potential repercussions of alienating the United States, a key ally of Israel and a competitor of China, significantly hampers China's credibility as a neutral mediator.[1][2]
In addition, China's limited influence over the key players, specifically Israel, and the risks of drawing Beijing into a regional war with global implications that it wishes to avoid further complicate the situation.[2][3] Moreover, China's military cooperation with Iran is mainly symbolic, suggesting limited strategic flexibility to impact the conflict decisively.[3]
In conclusion, while China may express a desire to play a mediatory role, multiple obstacles must be overcome, such as its perceived bias, strained relations with Israel, geopolitical considerations, and limited leverage over the conflict parties. Consequently, China's role is more likely to be limited to rhetorical calls for de-escalation rather than substantial, meaningful mediation.[1][2][4]
In the realm of war-and-conflicts, China is intricately balanced between maintaining diplomatic relations with Israel and Iran, a delicate dance that could be disrupted by the Israel-Iran conflict. The ongoing dialogue between China and Israel in politics serves as a potentially valuable tool in China's quest for mediation. However, China's impartiality is questionable due to its apparent allegiance with Iran, creating challenges for potential mediation efforts and causing doubts about its ability to play a significant role in resolving the conflict.
