Israel Pursues Capture of Gaza City: Exploring Potential Outcomes
Israel's decision to expand its military operations in the Gaza Strip has sparked a wave of international criticism and concerns over the potential humanitarian consequences, hostage safety, and regional stability.
The planned expansion risks causing mass displacement, with up to 800,000 civilians, many already displaced, expected to be forced to leave Gaza City by early October. This could exacerbate the ongoing humanitarian crisis in the region, deepening instability and potentially rendering Gaza uninhabitable [2][1][4].
The international community is urging Israel to release all hostages held by Hamas, with ongoing military escalation posing a significant danger to their lives without improving their chances for release [4][3]. The Security Council and multiple international actors have demanded the unconditional and immediate release of all hostages, including German-Israeli Rom Braslavski (21) and Evyatar David (24), whose emaciated conditions have been shown in propaganda videos published by Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad [5].
Diplomatic tensions are on the rise as countries like France and Turkey condemn the military escalation as further violations of international law, undermining prospects for peace and regional stability [1][3]. The UN and several nations warn that a purely military approach will not resolve the conflict and stress the urgent need for diplomacy, protection of civilians, humanitarian aid, and advancement toward a two-state solution [2][4][3].
The German government has taken concrete measures against Israel for the first time, halting exports of military goods that could be used in the Gaza war [6]. Some countries are considering imposing sanctions in response to Israel's actions [7]. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has urged Israel to reconsider its decision to escalate, stating that it will not contribute to the end of the conflict or the release of hostages [8].
The fear among the Palestinian population is that the takeover of further areas could lead to a new wave of flight and expulsion, similar to that during the war at the time of Israel's founding in 1948 and during the Six-Day War in 1967 [9]. Many people are expected to flee the city of Gaza due to the conquest, with residents to be evacuated to overcrowded refugee camps in the center of the Gaza Strip, posing health risks [10].
Israel's military currently controls around 75% of the Gaza Strip's territory, and the city of Gaza is one of the parts not yet under Israeli control [11]. Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated that Israel wants to take control of the entire Gaza Strip but does not want to permanently occupy it, aiming to liberate it from Hamas for eventual handover to other forces [12]. However, Netanyahu faces a political dilemma regarding the future of the Gaza Strip, with his far-right coalition partners demanding the occupation of the entire territory and the expulsion of Palestinians [13].
A large-scale ground offensive in urban areas carries increased risks for Israeli soldiers and could further undermine support for the war among the Israeli public [14]. The military leadership is concerned about the safety of the 50 hostages still in Gaza, with 20 believed to be alive [15].
The EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has also called on Israel to question a further military escalation in the Gaza Strip [16]. Efforts continue through international conferences and calls for a stabilization mission to ensure security for both Palestinians and Israelis [3][4].
In sum, the expanded Israeli military operations threaten severe humanitarian consequences and mass displacement among Gazan civilians, increased danger and prolonged suffering for hostages held by Hamas, heightened regional instability and diplomatic condemnation, and undermining of the prospects for a peaceful two-state solution [1][2][3][4]. These factors underscore widespread international appeals to halt or reverse the expansion and seek a ceasefire and negotiated settlement [1][2][3][4].
The planned expansion of Israel's military operations might lead to heightened instability, as the potential displacement of up to 800,000 civilians, many already displaced, could exacerbate the ongoing crisis. This move is under scrutiny by the international community, including the Security Council, who have issued demands for the immediate release of hostages, such as German-Israeli Rom Braslavski and Evyatar David, highlighting the urgent need for diplomacy and a peaceful two-state solution. Furthermore, the continued escalation of war-and-conflicts in the region is detrimental to politics, with diplomatic tensions on the rise among countries like France and Turkey, condemning Israel's actions as further violations of international law.
