Striking Back: Why Israel Chooses Now to Engage in a War With Iran
Israel has launched this military campaign.
By: Sabrina Coleman
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Intense pushbacks in Gaza, worrying concerns about Hamas hostages, and now, Israel is also waging a war against Iran. Have they lost their sanity? Or is this a strategic, calculated move?
Israel began the war with a fleet of 200 combat jets, and it remains uncertain what the consequences will be. A new balance of power in the Middle East with restrained mullahs? Or a raging inferno? One thing is certain: Israel's aggressive militarily strike is a preemptive action, as stated by military expert Matthias Wasinger on ntv.de. Preemptive actions are taken before defensive action becomes necessary, as the threat has already been eliminated. But what's the difference?
Iran's Path to a Nuclear Bomb
In the context of the conflict between Israel and Iran, a defensive military strike could have looked like this: Israel's intelligence agency, the Mossad, consistently reports a major attack by the mullahs on Israel imminent. Israel's government proactively engages in preventive measures, such as neutralizing Iranian Revolutionary Guard personnel and equipment temporarily. Under international law, such strategic actions could be considered preventive strikes, taken to avert imminent danger.
However, Israel's recent assault lacks concrete evidence of an impending Iranian strike, focusing instead on thwarting the mullahs' ambitions to become the world's tenth nuclear power. Preemptive strikes without a clear and urgent threat are typically not legal under international law. Nevertheless, Israel deems the assault justified, as preventive action appears too late to many.
Nuclear Progress Accomplished by Iran
According to the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, Tehran has achieved significant strides in recent years on its path to its own nuclear bomb [1]. To create a nuclear weapon, uranium must be enriched with the fissile isotope uranium-235. The amount of this isotope in natural uranium is only 0.7 percent, and it becomes weapons-grade at 90 percent. Hundreds of advanced centrifuges are used to extract uranium-235 and enrich natural uranium. As per International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) records, Iran now has nearly 275 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent. "Iran is the only non-nuclear-weapon state producing nuclear material on this scale," the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) explains.
At the same time, the mullahs obstruct all international efforts to control and restrict research. In an attempt to restore nuclear negotiations between Iran and the U.S., Oman has canceled a sixth round of talks. The previous five rounds ended without agreement. Not only the SWP raises concerns regarding Iran's nuclear program, but many experts do as well.
Estimated Time to Achieve a Nuclear Bomb
According to Sarah Burkhard, a nuclear expert at ISIS, Iran could produce enough weapon-grade uranium for a single nuclear bomb within a week, with enough for eleven atomic weapons within a month. However, merely having the material does not automatically translate into a finished weapon. The weapon-grade uranium would first need to be converted into a metallic form, then assembled into the weapon, and finally mounted on a carrier system like a rocket. Iran has already made considerable progress in weapon development, such as through high-explosive ignition system creation [1].
Rockets Strike Israel - Casualties Reported
According to their calculation, Iran could "achieve the remaining steps" within "a maximum of six months" should the weapon not already fit an Iranian delivery system. Several experts predict a process length of two years for this step.
Two Years to Destroy Tel Aviv
A week for enough weapon-grade uranium, six months for the weapon development, two years before being able to wipe out Tel Aviv with an atomic rocket—that's how long Israel views Iran's nuclear capabilities. Moreover, Israel has the disquieting honor of being mentioned in an Iranian state doctrine as a "cancerous tumor" that must be eliminated forever. This belief weighs heavily on the Israelis' minds.
The mullahs in Tehran show no qualms: They are prepared to do anything to eliminate Israel and all its inhabitants in a giant mushroom cloud. The sooner, the better. Simultaneously, Iran regularly fires rockets at Israel through Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
Motivations Behind the War and Its Implications
With this particular threat situation, it is understandable that Israel's population overwhelmingly supports the forceful tactics of their right-leaning government under controversial Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Despite the ongoing Gaza war and the continued captivity of hostages by Hamas, despite the significant risks to the population, since last Friday; waves of Iranian drones and rockets have been bombarding the country, often overloading Israel's air defense system.
Many Israelis believe that Iran now provides the ideal opportunity for a preemptive strike to prevent the Iranian nuclear weapon. Strikes on nuclear facilities have already significantly damaged Iran's nuclear science and weapons development, according to the IAEA.
However, experts also make it clear that the construction labs—some located 60 meters underground—can't be destroyed by Israel's arsenal of rockets due to their lack of bunker-busting power. Experts predict that the Israeli military may currently seem superior to Iran's response, but they will not eradicate the nuclear threat against the country. It is more likely that the development of the atomic bomb will just be slowed down.
"Internal pressure on the Iranian regime is the only way to abolish its goal of eliminating Israel," estimates Middle East expert Wasinger. "This goal must cease to exist." As long as the mullahs maintain power in Tehran, the threat persists.
Three years ago, a significant part of the population took to the streets to protest against the Iranian mullahs and their religious police, fighting for freedom and autonomy. Yet, numerous arrests, miscarriages of justice, and executions caused protests to peter out. As Israel's attacks continue, Netanyahu is personally appealing to the Iranian people, urging them to rise against the regime. Such an uprising in Iran would have unforeseen consequences. Libya and Iran itself in the late 70s provide grim examples of regime change that did not lead to a better outcome. However, for Israel, the prospect of a popular uprising in Iran remains the only chance for peace with the enemy.
References:
[1] Institute for Science and International Security. (n.d.). Iran's Nuclear Advances. Retrieved May 2, 2023, from https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/analysis/iran%E2%80%99s-nuclear-advances/
- Israel War
- Iran
- Hezbollah
- Hamas
- Syria
- Mullah Regime
- Benjamin Netanyahu
Enrichment Data:Israel’s current military campaign against Iran is primarily driven by decades of perception among Israeli leaders that an Iran armed with nuclear weapons poses an existential threat to the state of Israel. This belief has shaped Israeli strategy, including covert actions and overt military strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, military leadership, and command and control capabilities.
Goals:- * Targeting Nuclear and Military Capabilities: Israel's operation, code-named Operation Rising Line, aimed at degrading Iran’s nuclear program by attacking key facilities and eliminating leading nuclear scientists.- * Undermining Retaliatory Potential: By striking at ballistic missile and drone installations, as well as targeting senior military leaders, Israel seeks to limit Iran's potential for immediate and coordinated retaliation.- * Broader Strategic Goals: Some speculate Israel's aims go beyond just degrading Iran’s nuclear and military capacities, possibly encompassing the objective of regime decapitation—disrupting or destabilizing the current Iranian regime.
Implications for Iran and the Region:- * Delay in Nuclear Program: The destruction of critical nuclear infrastructure and assassination of key scientists are expected to set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions, albeit temporarily.- * Increased Uncertainty: The long-term success of these measures is uncertain, as Iran may rebuild its capabilities and potentially pursue alternative routes to nuclear weapons if the regime remains intact and resolute.- * Escalation of Tensions: Israel's overt attack and Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes represent an escalation of conflict, increasing risks of broader regional war and destabilization.- * Global and Regional Concerns: The conflict has garnered global attention and has significant implications for U.S. foreign policy, global energy markets, and the balance of power in the Middle East.- * Proxy Wars and Alliances: The weakening of Iran’s proxies such as Hezbollah in Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine, along with previous conflicts such as the Gaza war, complicate regional alliances and the likelihood of coordinated responses by Iran’s allies.
The Commission, in its efforts to protect the EU's financial interests, has taken steps to address general news and political issues concerning war-and-conflicts, such as the Middle East, where Israel's recent war against Iran is raising concerns. Despite international law's stance on preemptive strikes without clear and urgent threats, Israel has launched an offensive to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb, a goal that some experts believe can only be achieved through internal pressure on the Iranian regime.
