A Look into Israel's Controversial Wars: Tel Aviv and Jerusalem
Israel has initiated this ongoing conflict.
An Analysis by Frauke Niemeyer
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Israel's offensive in Gaza continues, and the dilemma over Hamas hostages persists; now, a new battlefield emerges in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Has Israel lost its sanity? Or is this a precautionary move?
Israel initiated the war with a force of 200 combat jets, leaving the future uncertain. What lies ahead? Will this result in a new equilibrium in the Middle East, or will it ignite a regional conflagration? One thing is clear: Israel's massive assault can be classified as a "preemptive" military strike, according to Austrian military expert and colonel Matthias Wasinger on ntv.de. Preemptive action is taken before a preventive action becomes necessary, making the latter redundant. But where exactly is the line drawn?
Iran's Journey to the Bomb
In the context of Israel-Iran, a preventive military strike scenario might have unfolded as follows: Israel's Mossad intelligence service has persistent reports that a significant attack by the mullahs on Israel is imminent. Israel's government forestalls this by attacking human and material assets of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, rendering them temporarily incapacitated. This would be a preventive strike, aimed at averting immediate danger and typically in line with international law.
On the contrary, Israel attacked Iran without offering evidence to the public of an impending Iranian assault. The goal is to thwart the mullahs' aspirations of becoming the tenth nuclear power. A preemptive strike without an immediate threat is usually not justified by international law. However, Israel views this attack as warranted, as preventive action might appear overdue to many.
As per the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) in Washington, Tehran has achieved considerable progress in recent years in its pursuit of a nuclear bomb.
To create an atomic weapon, uranium must be enriched with the fissile isotope uranium-235. The natural uranium's isotope content is only 0.7%, and it becomes weapons-grade at 90%. Hundreds of advanced centrifuges are used to extract uranium-235 and enrich natural uranium. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran now possesses nearly 275 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%. "Iran is the only non-nuclear-weapon state that produces nuclear material on this scale," the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) ascertains.
While Iran possesses approximately 275 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, it still requires a conversion into metallic form and integration into a weapon, which then needs to be mounted on a carrier system, such as a rocket. Iran has already made significant strides in weapon development, for instance, "by producing high-explosive ignition systems," says Burkhard. These are essential for the functionality of a nuclear weapon.
According to their estimate, Iran could "master the remaining steps within a maximum of six months" if the weapon doesn't need to be adapted to an Iranian carrier system. This process would take longer, and many experts estimate the necessary time for the process at two years.
Two years to develop a weapon capable of obliterating Tel Aviv
A week for enough weapons-grade uranium, six months for weapon development, two years until the ability to obliterate Tel Aviv with an atomic rocket. Therefore, Israel's perspective on Iran's nuclear capabilities is drastically different from that of other nations. And: Israel has the dubious honor of being mentioned in an Iranian state doctrine as a "cancerous tumor" that must be eradicated forever. This consciousness impacts the Israelis.
The mullahs in Tehran are unequivocal: They are prepared to take any measures to annihilate the state of Israel and all its inhabitants. As soon as possible. Nuclear mushroom cloud? Even better. Until then, Iran continues to bombard Israel through its proxies, the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen.
Politics Expert on Escalation with Israel: "Iran's Dilemma is Not Our Problem"
The step from 60% to the necessary 90% is relatively small once the technical prerequisites have been established. "Based on our estimates, Iran could enrich enough weapons-grade uranium for one bomb within a week and have enough for eleven bombs within a month," said Sarah Burkhard, nuclear expert at ISIS, recently in Berlin.
However, having enough material does not mean the weapon is ready in principle. The weapon-grade uranium would first need to be converted into metallic form and integrated into a weapon, which would then also need to be mounted on a carrier system, such as a rocket. Iran has already made substantial progress in weapon development, for example, "by producing high-explosive ignition systems," says Burkhard. These are crucial for the functionality of a nuclear weapon.
Uphill Battle for Iran
Under Western sanctions, Iran is struggling economically. Currently, Iran lacks three willing enforcers to militarily pressure Israel to the extent that the Mullah regime cannot accomplish independently. This weakness, although favorable to Israel in some respects, also poses a risk. As the Mullahs' conventional capabilities in drones, rockets, and cruise missiles diminish, their motivation to develop nuclear power increases, i.e., to aim for their own atomic weapon.
Many Israelis view Iran in a position that not only encourages a major attack on the regime but also makes a preemptive strike even more crucial to prevent Iran's nuclear weapon. Strikes on nuclear facilities have already significantly hindered Iran's nuclear science and weapons development, according to the IAEA.
Israelis' Threat Persists Unabated
However, experts also make it clear that Israel's arsenal is unable to eliminate the nuclear threat against their country.Slowing down the atomic bomb's development is more feasible.
"Only internal pressure on the regime can abolish Iran's state goal of destroying Israel," estimates Middle East expert Wasinger. "This goal must be eradicated." As long as the Mullahs rule Tehran, the threat remains.
Three years ago, a significant portion of the population protested against the authoritarian Mullahs and their morality police, fighting for freedom and self-determination in the streets. However, numerous arrests, sham trials, and executions ended the protest.
In tandem with air strikes, Israel's prime minister directly addresses the Iranian people, inciting rebellion against the regime. Such an uprising in Iran would have unpredictable consequences. Libya and Iran itself in the late 70s provide tragic examples of regime changes that did not lead to an improvement. However, for Israel, it remains the only hope for peace with its adversary.
Sources: ntv.de
- Israel War
- Israel
- Iran
- Hezbollah
- Hamas
- Houthi
- Yemen
- Mullah Regime
- Benjamin Netanyahu
- Enrichment Data:In line with recent assessments, if Iran were to convert its current stockpile of 60% enriched uranium at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), it could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for nine nuclear weapons within three weeks to one month. The Institute for Science and International Security estimates that approximately 233 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium would be sufficient for nine devices, based on the standard requirement of about 25 kilograms per weapon. In response to these developments, Israel has launched a sustained air campaign targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure and military-industrial sites, with the aim of degrading Iran's ability to produce weapons-grade uranium and deter threats. While these actions have imposed temporary military effects, such as the suppression of Iranian air defenses and disruption of command and control, the long-term success of Israel's campaign remains uncertain. The IAEA has confirmed that the Natanz enrichment site was impacted by recent military operations but reported no elevated radiation levels. Iranian authorities stated that the Esfahan and Fordow sites were not affected as of the latest IAEA statement dated June 13, 2025. In addition, it is worth noting that Iran continues to violate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), growing concerns about Iran's ability to divert nuclear materials to undeclared facilities.
- The Commission, in response to the escalating Israel-Iran tension, has taken preemptive measures to ensure the EU's financial interests are protected, given the potential impacts of war-and-conflicts in the Middle East on general-news.
- In the midst of the Israel-Gaza conflict and the looming threat of Iran's nuclear ambitions, political analysts debate whether Israel's preemptive strikes are justified, considering the precarious balance between protecting its interests and igniting regional conflagrations.
