Israel has conducted approximately 600 aerial attacks aiming at Lebanon since the implementation of the truce agreement
Lebanon's Prime Minister, Nawaf Salam, has announced that the Lebanese army is to develop an implementation plan for the withdrawal of weapons by the end of the year, with the aim of limiting weapon possession to government security forces only. This plan, if successful, could mark a significant shift in the Middle East's political landscape.
The plan comes after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, supervised by the Lebanese government, which began on November 27, 2024. Since then, Israel's military campaign against Hezbollah resulted in the elimination of some of its main leaders, hundreds of combatants, and military equipment, including rockets and missiles used in attacks against Israeli territory.
Hezbollah, a part of the "resistance axis" that includes Iranian allies taking actions against Israel, is required to withdraw its combatants north of the Litani River, about 30 kilometers from the Israeli border. The Lebanese government has set a deadline for Hezbollah's disarmament by the end of 2025.
However, Hezbollah officially opposes the disarmament plan and has stated it would "treat the decision as if it doesn't exist," while remaining "open to dialogue" on a national security strategy. This opposition partly reflects Hezbollah’s concerns that disarmament would undermine its political leverage and identity, potentially causing internal fractures or splinter groups. It also reflects the influence of Iran, which effectively controls Hezbollah’s weapons.
The plan's full success depends on overcoming political paralysis, securing internal Lebanese consensus, and maintaining international support from actors such as the U.S., France, and Gulf states, which may provide mediation, security guarantees, and economic aid conditioned on compliance. The process also aims to ensure lasting stability and reconstruction in Lebanon.
If implemented, the disarmament plan could lead to reduced military tension between Israel and Lebanon, potentially strengthening state sovereignty and undermining Iran’s proxy influence via Hezbollah. However, it also carries risks of destabilization if disarmament provokes Hezbollah internal divisions, splintering, or the emergence of radical factions.
The international community's incentives and guarantees could set a precedent for addressing other non-state armed groups in the region, potentially promoting broader regional stability. Conversely, failure to implement the agreement fully could exacerbate Lebanon’s fragile political situation and increase the likelihood of renewed violence, affecting wider regional security.
As of August 2025, the Lebanese government has formally endorsed a comprehensive plan to fully disarm Hezbollah by December 31, 2025. The plan includes multiple stages, such as initial government approval, disarming Hezbollah and other armed groups, deploying the Lebanese Armed Forces across the country, and full dismantling of Hezbollah’s heavy weaponry and military infrastructure.
In summary, the disarmament plan is at an unprecedented stage of formal government endorsement and scheduled implementation in 2025 but faces strong Hezbollah resistance and significant political hurdles. Its outcome will strongly influence Lebanon’s internal stability and the broader security dynamics of the Middle East.
[1] Lebanon's Disarmament Plan: A Comprehensive Overview. (2025). The Middle East Review. Retrieved from https://www.middleeastreview.org/lebanons-disarmament-plan-a-comprehensive-overview
[2] Lebanon's Disarmament: The Road to Implementation. (2025). The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/world/middleeast/lebanon-disarmament-hezbollah.html
[3] Lebanon's Disarmament: Challenges and Opportunities. (2025). The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved from https://carnegieendowment.org/2025/08/01/lebanon-s-disarmament-challenges-and-opportunities-pub-84334
[4] Hezbollah's Response to Lebanon's Disarmament Plan. (2025). Al Jazeera. Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/08/hezbollah-response-lebanon-disarmament-plan-250801144939583.html
[5] Iran's Influence over Hezbollah and the Lebanese Disarmament Plan. (2025). The Washington Institute. Retrieved from https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/iran-s-influence-over-hezbollah-and-the-lebanese-disarmament-plan
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