Israel contemplates initiating a significant land assault in Gaza, intensifying its pressure on Hamas.
Unleashing the Storm: Potential Large-Scale Israeli Offensive in Gaza
Israel is weighing the possibility of a massive ground assault on Gaza, where tens of thousands of troops could be sent into combat to overrun vast expanses of the territory, according to an Israeli official and a second source with knowledge of the matter.
This potential massive operation is one of several potential strategies the Israeli government is considering as it escalates its conflict with Hamas and pressures the militant group to surrender more hostages without insisting on a ceasefire.
Negotiations brokered by Egypt and Qatar to bring about a truce between Israel and Hamas have intensified in recent days. Leaks about a possible large-scale offensive are being released intentionally by Israel to apply additional pressure on Hamas during negotiations, according to one source. Israel has previously indicated it would halt its attacks if Hamas agreed to free more hostages.
While Israel's military has executed numerous ground assaults in Gaza throughout the conflict, its forces have typically withdrawn within days or weeks of subduing Hamas fighters in a targeted area. In the absence of an Israeli occupation or an alternative governing body, Hamas often reappears in those areas, prompting renewed clashes.
Under one potential scenario being evaluated, Israeli forces would eliminate Hamas from large swaths of Gaza and then maintain control over that territory to prevent Hamas from regaining a foothold, the sources said. Such a decision could result in the Israeli military remaining in occupation and fighting insurgencies for years.
A large-scale offensive could involve up to five Israeli divisions, or around 50,000 troops, according to the sources.
Israel is working to harden its position and force Hamas to return to the negotiating table on Israel's terms, according to Israel Ziv, a retired general who served 35 years in the Israeli military, including as chief of operations for the joint chiefs of staff. However, Ziv warns that escalating the violence may lead Israel down a dangerous path from which it may not be able to escape.
"Once you threaten something, you should be prepared to do it," said Ziv. The Israeli military has already begun laying the groundwork for larger-scale ground maneuvers, reclaiming half of the Israeli-designated Netzarim corridor, which separates northern Gaza from the rest of the Strip, and deploying troops to strategic positions in northern and southern Gaza.
Israel's government has created an agency to facilitate the voluntary relocation of Palestinians in Gaza to third countries, but no nation has yet agreed to accept these emigres. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made the destruction of Hamas's military and governmental capabilities in Gaza a primary objective in the war, and has pledged an "absolute victory."
However, a broader and longer-term Israeli military offensive in Gaza could provoke significant resistance from the Israeli public, much of which supports reaching a deal to end the war in exchange for the release of all hostages.
As crucial members of Netanyahu's right-wing coalition demand a return to full-scale war in exchange for a negotiated settlement to free the hostages, some analysts believe that US President Donald Trump may provide more backing for large-scale Israeli military action than his predecessor, Joe Biden, who suspended the transfer of certain weapons to prevent a major Israeli offensive into the densely populated southern part of Gaza.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has hinted at the possibility of large-scale expansion of military ground operations, saying last week he had directed the IDF to seize additional territories while evacuating the population.
"The more Hamas continues its refusal, the more territory it will lose to Israel," Katz said Friday.
Enrichment Insights
Humanitarian Implications
The long-term occupation of Gaza by Israeli forces could exacerbate the existing humanitarian crisis in the region, potentially leading to famine, disease outbreaks, and increased suffering among civilians. An expanded ground offensive in Gaza could alsoresult in significant civilian casualties, further traumatizing the Palestinian community and leading to a deterioration of living conditions for women and children.
Military and Political Consequences
A large-scale Israeli ground offensive in Gaza could provoke resistance from Hamas and other militant groups, potentially escalating tensions and leading to a prolonged conflict. The offensive could also strain diplomatic relationships with the international community, particularly if civilian casualties and human rights abuses are reported, leading to increased international pressure on Israel to cease its activities.
Regional Stability
The prospect of an extended Israeli presence in Gaza raises concerns about regional stability and the potential for the conflict to spill over into neighboring countries such as Lebanon and Egypt. Extremists within Israel's government may seek to exploit the conflict for expansionist purposes, risking wider regional conflicts involving additional nations or groups.
Hezbollah and Lebanon
Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group, has threatened retaliation if Israel continues its attacks on Gaza. The potential for Hezbollah to intervene in the conflict in support of Hamas could escalate the conflict and lead to a broader regional war involving Lebanon and other countries.
Public and Political Opinion
International public opinion and political support for Israel may shift negatively if the conflict leads to significant civilian casualties and human rights abuses. This could result in increased pressure on Israel to cease its actions and withdraw its forces from Gaza, potentially weakening Israel's position in the conflict and at the negotiating table.
- The potential large-scale Israeli offensive in Gaza could amplify tensions not only within the Middle East but also globally, as the world watches the humanitarian implications unfold.
- The recent deal between Israel and Hamas negotiation brokers Egypt and Qatar, aimed at securing a truce, could be further compromised if Israel proceeds with amplifying its staff in Gaza.
- Staff within Israel's military are reportedly preparing for up to five divisions, or around 50,000 troops, to be involved in a potential Gaza invasion, which could have devastating effects on the civilian population and the region as a whole.
