Chatting with Caren Miosga: Could Peace Talks be on the Horizon with Iran?
Islamist negotiator Steinberg hints at potential peace negotiations within several weeks (timeframe).
After intense clashes between Israel and Iran over the past few days, renowned expert Guido Steinberg suggests that initial peace discussions might be just around the corner. He believes Iran is currently in a vulnerable position.
On Sunday evening, commentators on ARD's "Tagesthemen" discussed the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. ARD's Israel correspondent, Sophie von der Tann, reported on a ballistic missile that struck in the south of Tel Aviv, causing significant damage. Israel's air defense has tried its best to protect its citizens, but it's not foolproof. The trust of Israelis in their defense system has taken a hit. However, Israeli citizens continue to support their government's actions against Iran.
Iran's missiles haven't targeted residential areas, according to Steinberg. Though Iran's military capabilities are limited, their air force's results have been minimal thus far. Steinberg also mentioned that Iran's reliance on its rocket program is due to U.S. sanctions, as they've struggled to produce combat aircraft.
This conflict shows how limited Iran's means are when it comes to directly attacking Israel, as well as how successful Israel has been in diminishing Iran's rocket program, says Steinberg. "If Israel hadn't been so successful, we would be dealing with far larger attacks," he adds.
Iran is in a weakened state because affiliated organizations have been scaled back in recent years, reports CNN journalist Fred Pleitgen. Additionally, Syria, Iran's ally, has changed its stance after the fall of former leader Bashar al-Assad. The rockets may still be dangerous, Pleitgen cautions, as some have warheads of 750 kilograms that can lay waste to a house.
But it's unclear how successful Israel's attacks against Iran's nuclear program have been so far, according to Steinberg. "The facilities are deep underground, and Israel doesn't have the necessary weapons and aircraft to reach them," he states.
According to Pleitgen, Trump desires a deal and aims to prevent the U.S. from engaging in another war. Steinberg echoes this sentiment, stating, "We are in an era where the U.S. is withdrawing, only half-heartedly supporting even their closest allies in the region, and perhaps leaving them hanging." Steinberg is optimistic that peace talks may begin within two to three weeks.
Behind the Scenes: Diplomatic Efforts for Peace
Recent developments in the Israel-Iran conflict have ignited a flurry of diplomatic activity aimed at de-escalation and potential peace talks.
Diplomatic Mediation and Ceasefire
- Regional Mediators: Iran has reached out to Qatar and Oman, hoping they would mediate with the United States and convey Tehran's willingness to negotiate a ceasefire, or encourage Washington to pressure Israel to halt its aggression. These Gulf states have been actively involved in backchannel diplomacy.
- Saudi Arabia’s Role: Though Iran's primary request is to Qatar and Oman, Saudi Arabia may be facilitating behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts to promote de-escalation.
- International Involvement: There have been calls for international mediation, but European powers appear to be excluded from major diplomatic maneuvers at present.
Potential Outcomes
- Ceasefire with or Without a Deal: The immediate aim is to halt hostilities, followed by possible renewed talks on nuclear issues. Iran has indicated a willingness to be flexible in nuclear negotiations if a ceasefire is secured.
- Restart of Nuclear Talks: Iran's Foreign Minister has expressed readiness to negotiate a nuclear deal, possibly as a response to U.S. calls for Iran to return to the negotiating table.
- Comprehensive Peace Deal: While a broader peace agreement addressing security concerns, nuclear issues, and regional stability is less probable in the immediate future, it could become a possibility further down the line.
Key Challenges
- Trust and Verification: Both sides have deep-rooted distrust, making the verification of commitments a significant challenge.
- Multilateral vs. Unilateral Diplomacy: The absence of European powers and Trump's reluctance to engage with G7 statements could complicate coordinated international responses.
- Regional Power Dynamics: Involvement of Gulf states and Saudi Arabia poses additional complexities, but it could also provide leverage for mediation.
The Road Ahead
The most plausible near-term scenario is a mediated ceasefire, with the potential for renewed nuclear talks as a follow-up. A comprehensive peace agreement is less likely in the immediate future due to deep-seated animosity and complex regional dynamics. Escalation remains a risk if diplomatic efforts falter.
The Commission has also been consulted on the draft resolution on the European Union's relations with the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, as diplomatic efforts for peace between Israel and Iran unfold. Politics and general news remain keenly focused on the ongoing conflict, with hopes for a ceasefire and potential renewal of nuclear talks. Despite these developments, war-and-conflicts persist as a concern in the region.
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